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Posted by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief in Politics. May 15th, 2007 | Comments
During the first Republican debate, you could say “They’re off” — because several were off of their game.
But in the second Republican primary debate for the 2008 GOP Presidential nomination you could say “They’re off!” — meaning off and running, scoring points against each other and tossing out snappy soundbite zingers (most likely prepared in advance).
And, in the end, in a debate marked by Fox News moderators quizzing candidates on whether they were REAL conservatives, plus questions to probe whether they had their positions prepared on gun control, abortion and tax cuts, it was clear that the GOP battle for the Presidential nomination is now out of its pro-forma orientation stage. Let the battle — and the negative ads, op research and defining of political opponents — begin.
And the result? Here are some thoughts on the debate from this independent voter (who has voted for candidates from both parties over the years):
The problematical nature of John McCain’s and Rudy Giuliani’s candidacies within today’s GOP was underlined. Both of them did far better than in the first debates. But McCain probably hurt himself among some Republican primary voters — and helped himself with some independents and perhaps some non-progressive Democrats — by sticking to his guns and coming out firmly against torture. Giuilani, in turn, likely faces problems in the primaries due to his pro-abortion stance — a stance that will help him with some independents and Democrats. Both candidates need to win in PRIMARIES first and they have to suddenly see the light on some issues like former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney or their candidacies could be hard sells. On the other hand, candidates with purer conservative credentials could split the straight-up-and-down conservative vote.
The paradox of Rudy Giuliani was clear. Giuliani at times came across as almost scholarly. Serious. But adamantly a hard liner on issues of national security, terrorism and torture. CLICK HERE to watch a video of what the Washington Post calls Giuliani’s high note — his demand that Texas Rep. Ron Paul retract what some perceived and claimed was an insinuation that the U.S. provoked the 911 attacks. If Rudy gets the nomination, it’ll be because it seems to be a genuine reaction — and these debates hold few of those. Guiliani stumbled on questions about abortion and when asked how he qualifies as a conservative given some of his views. But he came across as a serious, no-nonsense leader.
John McCain recovers but his historical moment could be over. McCain was much better in this debate, but there’s an aura over him that his moment may have passed and that he may still be tough for many Republican voters to swallow. His stance on torture, including torture renamed so it isn’t called torture but is still torture, was strong: “There’s more to war than the battlefield,” he noted and noted that most politicians and officials who have military background agree with his position. That may not matter to primary voters, who may feel McCain is too wobbly in a terrorism-filled era.
Mitt Romney has money, organization and confidence but also a problem. Romney is the most telegenic candidate, the smoothest, and the most convincing….until the fact appears that he has “seen the light” on so many issues and now agrees with what most of the GOP political base advocates. He got a question asking whether any of his position changes due to thinking through issues were changes that put him AT ODDS with what the GOP base wants. His answer essentially seemed unsatisfying and designed to run out the clock. This will be his Achilles Heel, not just in the primaries, but if he is the GOP nominee. You can see someone just redoing the John Kerry commercials. His response in the debate to questions about his position shifts were as totally convincing as Giuliani trying to explain how he fits the definition of a conservative.
Impressions of a few other candidates. The most-quotable sound bite came from Mike Huckabee: “We’ve had a Congress that’s spent money like John Edwards at a beauty shop,” a reference to Edwards’ mega-costly haircut that sparked a lot of stories and derisive blog posts. Running for future Secretary of Defense? Rep. Duncan Hunter (here in San Diego and on my old newspaper he was considered a resource on defense issues)….Tommy Thompson: A product that was rolled out too late and poorly presented. He wasn’t elected a zillion times for nothing — but has a great future as an ex-Governor…Sam Brownback: Will likely be on the national scene competing in future primaries. Could become a bigger conservative player in the future.
The Ron Paul Factor: In every primary there is one rhetorical devil’s advocate who upsets the other candidates and/or seems out of that party’s mainstream or is intensely blunt (remember John Anderson?). IN 2008, in a party dominated by the influence of George Bush on conservatism and other conservatives who want to inch away from that domination, the libertarian Paul’s views, passion and bluntness made him the voice that caused conservative jaws to drop but perhaps some others who don’t agree with the conservative conventional wisdom, or the assumptions underlying questions and answers in the debate, to cheer. Paul will get lots of media ink and attention, even if he only gets 2 votes.
The difference a network makes. The assumptions, questions and the way this debate was conducted was in sharp contrast to MSNBC. Conservatives will say this was the way it should be done and as fair; progressives and others may say the questions were from the perspective of conservatism and support for the administration. No matter how it’s perceived, the Fox debate seemed set up to ask questions that Republicans voting in the primaries would be asking and to grill the candidates (briefly) if they tried to evade them (which some did).
Fred Thompson’s handicap. Each time there’s a debate like this, it could make it harder for Thompson because antsy GOPers may start choosing sides and not want to wait for the summer for Thompson — or Newt — to jump into the fray.
OTHER STORIES AND RESOURCES: Glenn Reynolds has a roundup and thinks Giuliani won. Hotline On Call feels McCain won, Giuliani did very well and looked Presidential, and Romney stumbled. Also has comments on some others. Live blogging by Vodka Pundit Andrew Sullivan was impressed by Paul’s “cojones” on the war and was impressed by McCain on torture. In a post that needs to be read in full, Sullivan writes: “It’s also clear that compassionate conservatism is dead. Every single candidate favors reduced taxes and big spending cuts. None, however, is prepared to say that Medicare and Social Security must be on the chopping block. The grand experiment in big-government Republicanism is therefore rhetorically over.”
