Is A Bloomberg-Hagel Independent Ticket In The Offing For 2008?

Will New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg run as an independent candidate for President or won’t he? He absolutely insists he won’t, but some believe he is still sending out feelers that he’s not ruling it out. Is this a case of “hope springs eternal” — or actual analysis?

Will the Republican Senator Chuck Hagel run as an independent candidate for President, or won’t he? Some think he just might.

And if they run, would they run together? Will it be an independent ticket offering two of the country’s most un-lockstep politicos — a Bloomberg-Hagel ticket? Those who think this will happen point to Hagel’s praise of Bloomberg and a dinner they had together recently, but on Monday Bloomberg again pooh-poohed the idea:

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg again rejected supporters Monday who wanted him to run for president. That includes Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel’s suggestion that the nation could use an independent presidential ticket with Bloomberg and Hagel on it.

“I think he was probably joking,” Bloomberg said in an Albany news conference pushing his environmental plan for New York City. “He speaks his mind … he’s not happy with the same things that I’m not happy about.”

Hagel, a frequent critic of the Iraq war, made the suggestion on Sunday’s “Face the Nation” on CBS.

Bloomberg, serving his last term under the city’s term limit law, said a New York Daily News poll this week that found him ahead of Republican Rudolph Giuliani was flattering, but “the current mayor always has a real advantage.”

Even so, expect speculation: Did he really mean it? Was this just a smokescreen while he further explores how viable this would be? Was he serious? Does this mean he’d give money to Hagel or another third party?

There’s buzz and there’s buzz. But this is BUZZ — because if it happens these aren’t two political unknowns, or people whose faces are all too familiar on the national Presidential election stage (Ralph Nader) or people thinking of entering the primaries who are faces some Americans would like to forget (Newt Gingrich).

They’re two politicians who raise the rankles of some partisans but are “new product” nationally — and they could throw a monkey wrench into the smug, knowing proclamations of talking heads on TV…even though third parties in America have generally proven to be as successful as the New Coke.

How possible is it that New York’s Mayor will jump in? According to the Washington Times, he’s considering a $1 billion run:

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is prepared to spend an unprecedented $1 billion of his own $5.8 billion personal fortune for a third-party presidential campaign, Ralph Z. Hallow will report Tuesday in The Washington Times.

“He has set aside $1 billion to go for it,” a long-time business adviser to Mr. Bloomberg tells The Times. “The thinking about where it will come from and do we have it is over, and the answer is yes, we can do it.”

The $1 billion would represent about one-fifth of Mr. Bloomberg’s personal fortune.

“Mike has been meeting with Ross Perot’s most senior people about how they did an independent run in 1992,” the Bloomberg business adviser said.

Time Magazine weighs the believability of speculation that Bloomberg will run, noting that he is a pragmatic man and doesn’t reach a firm conclusion. But it adds these tantalizing tidbits:

Bloomberg himself says he’s not running, has no plans to run, can’t imagine running, etc., etc. But that’s not the same as ruling it out entirely. He doesn’t do that. But he does occasionally do things to suggest that, far from ruling out a run, he’s seriously considering one. Or at least he wants the media and other speculators in the political market to think he’s seriously considering a run.

How else to explain the conspicuously public dinner in Washington last week between Bloomberg and Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel, the Vietnam veteran and GOP apostate who has come out in full opposition to President Bush and the continuation of the Iraq War? Hagel has toyed with the idea of running for the GOP nomination. But he’s an outsider now within the Republican family; having attacked Bush, he’d be doomed in a GOP primary. Hagel’s only avenue, like Bloomberg’s, would be a third-party bid. It doesn’t hurt that Hagel happened to make millions of his own as a cellular phone entrepreneur before he won his Senate seat. There had already been some speculation that Bloomberg and Hagel might team up. Their dinner at the Palm Restaurant, a place to be seen by media power players, was clearly meant to fuel even more.

And, Time reports, there is some nervousness in GOP ranks — which is why Bloomberg took a swipe from a leading Republican publication:

Finally, there is a sign that one of the two major parties is worried about a possible third-party Bloomberg run. The Weekly Standard magazine, the Murdoch-owned bible of the neoconservative movement, has as its latest cover story a cartoon of a diminutive Bloomberg perched in an over-sized, throne-like chair, with the headline: “The Mystery of Michael Bloomberg: Why does a popular but mediocre mayor think he should be President?” Republicans are generally convinced that Ross Perot took a disproportionate share of his 20% of the vote in 1992 out of the hide of the incumbent Republican President, George Bush, thereby ensuring Bill Clinton’s victory. Some are worried that a Bloomberg candidacy in 2008 would do the same thing: help the Democratic nominee by siphoning votes from the Republican. Some early polls suggest there is cause for such concern. Which explains why some Republicans would like to stop a Bloomberg campaign before it can begin.

And, if he ran:

As Time notes, Bill Clinton would not have been elected President if Perot had not run (and Perot might have actually won or taken a bigger chunk if he hadn’t dropped out of the race then jumped back in).

But in the end, it won’t be a cakewalk for Bloomberg or Hagel if they do run.

They would be under more intense media scrutiny than ever. The two major parties would work to exclude them from any debates. And third parties in America have in the end largely taken votes away from one of the other parties and seldom win, due to the way the system is set up. It’s a politically stacked deck.

Much will depend on the candidates the two parties nominate. Will there be enthusiasm for them?

And while speculation continues on Bloomberg and Hagel either running together or separately, there is another third party scenario.

If Rudy Giuliani gets the GOP nomination (a big if at this point), will there be a third party run by social conservative GOPers who cannot stomach a Republican Presidential candidate who accepts abortion, supports some forms of gun controls and refuses to turn gays into a wedge issue?