Iraq Related Political Surge Seems In Wrong Direction

There does seem to be the beginning of a “surge” in the Iraq war…on the political front…in two countries. And it’s not positive news for the Bush administration.

SURGE ONE IN THE IRAQ LEGISLATURE: Not only do Iraq lawmakers plan to surge away from their desks for a looonnnnnng vacation this summer (two months) while American troops fighting in and for their country won’t get similar R&R, but it now turns out that a majority of lawmakers are singing the old familiar song: “Yankee Go Home” — to the tune of a demand for a U.S. withdrawal timetable.

Put aside the editorial slant of the Alter Net post below and focus on the news itself — and it is NOT a good omen:

On Tuesday, without note in the U.S. media, more than half of the members of Iraq’s parliament rejected the continuing occupation of their country. 144 lawmakers signed onto a legislative petition calling on the United States to set a timetable for withdrawal, according to Nassar Al-Rubaie, a spokesman for the Al Sadr movement, the nationalist Shia group that sponsored the petition.

Reached by phone in Baghdad on Tuesday, Al-Rubaie said that he would present the petition, which is nonbinding, to the speaker of the Iraqi parliament and demand that a binding measure be put to a vote. Under Iraqi law, the speaker must present a resolution that’s called for by a majority of lawmakers, but there are significant loopholes and what will happen next is unclear.

What is clear is that while the U.S. Congress dickers over timelines and benchmarks, Baghdad faces a major political showdown of its own. The major schism in Iraqi politics is not between Sunni and Shia or supporters of the Iraqi government and “anti-government forces,” nor is it a clash of “moderates” against “radicals”; the defining battle for Iraq at the political level today is between nationalists trying to hold the Iraqi state together and separatists backed, so far, by the United States and Britain.

Not everyone may agree with that last assertion. But the fact that so many lawmakers want the U.S. to start setting a date to get out won’t make the Bush administration’s job any easier in arguing that Iraqis want the U.S. to stay until the mission as defined by President George Bush is done.

But there are more political storm clouds gathering elsewhere as well:

SURGE TWO IS GROWING DEFECTIONS AMONG GOPERS NBC ran a report by Tim Russert about a blunt meeting at the White House in which 11 Republicans told President George Bush that there needs to be a change in Iraq war policy. Think Progress has the transcript and a video of the NBC report and here’s a synopsis:

In a sign of the growing fissure between the White House and its congressional allies over the war, NBC News reports tonight that 11 Republican members of Congress pleaded yesterday with President Bush and his senior aides to change course in Iraq.

The group of Republicans was led by Reps. Mark Kirk (R-IL) and Charlie Dent (R-PA), and the meeting included Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Karl Rove, and Tony Snow. One member of Congress called the discussion the “most unvarnished conversation they’ve ever had with the president,” and NBC’s Tim Russert said it “may have been a defining pivotal moment” in the Iraq debate.

SURGE TWO IS HIGH PROFILE OPPOSITION AMONG SOME FORMER TOP MILITARY: Watch the ad HERE by retired Major General John Batiste which says protect American not George Bush.

THE SIGNIFICANCE is that if you add all of these factors together, they continue to indicate a loss of either support or firm support on several fronts — in Washington, in Baghdad and among a segment of the military that will most certainly find their comments countered by military officials who support the war but whose comments will have significant impact on the American psyche.

The question becomes: where are signs of significant GROWING support for the war, the conduct of the war?

Many Iraqi lawmakers now preparing for a nice, long holiday while signing a petition asking the U.S. for a timetable for when its forces can get out of town have probably long opposed the U.S. Bush supporters can also dismiss the 11 Republicans as political vulnerable abd selling out vital policy to keep their political jobs. And Batiste could be labeled a disgruntled former military employee who doesn’t reflect people now in the military who feel the mission is being handled well and is in fact working.

But in terms of drip-drip-drip of public perceptions the political surge is heading in the wrong direction for a White House that needs public and Congressional support, a completely supportive and cooperative Iraq government and Iraqi lawmakers, and past as well as present a nearly unanimous public display from members of the military to assure Americans that the controversial mission is well defined, well implemented and is in America’s current and long-term national interest.

Increasingly, it seems like that is not going to happen on George W. Bush’s watch.

FOR AN ANALYSIS OF HOW THE SURGE IS WORKING ON THE MILITARY FRONT BE SURE TO READ JASON STECK’S POST HERE titled The “Surge” Is Working. A MUST READ.