Greece: Bracing Ourselves for Financial Trouble
Megan McArdle reports on the Greek crisis and the likelihood that there will be real trouble much more quickly than many expect.
If EU economic policy were a soap opera–and apparently, it is–Greece would be the sultry, irresponsible beauty in a tumultuous love-hate relationship with rigid, authoritarian Germany. Obviously after years of tumultuous breakups and teary reunions, this is the season finale where he finally beats the hell out of her during a screaming fight over their impending bankruptcy, and in despair, she drives both of them, and his prize Volkswagen, off a cliff.
In other words, I don’t see this ending well. Hell, I haven’t seen it ending well for a long time. Greece needs to get out of its currency union with a bunch of inflation-obsessed Germans, and out from under its obviously unsustainable pile of debt. And unless they back down pretty soon, it seems like they’re preparing to do one or both in the very near future.
They probably won’t be the only ones, either–Spanish and Italian yields have jumped.
To be sure, pundits have called seven out of the last none euro crisis. And yet. I think at this point, we are probably in for a very rapid progression of events. ...Atlantic
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For the weedeaters out there, a conference pulled together smartly by economist James Galbraith for later this week at the LBJ School [in Austin, Texas]. An email came in this morning with a headsup:
This Thursday and Friday, beginning at 8.30 am CT, I will host a conference entitled “Crisis in the Eurozone” at the LBJ School. I have brought to Austin an exceptional group of European and American specialists at a decisive moment, so I do expect this will be an important event.
The meeting will be web-cast in full at this link, using RealPlayer:
http://realaudio.cc.utexas.edu:8080/ramgen/redundant/eurozone.rm
I would be very very grateful if those who blog or otherwise write (or broadcast) would pass along this link, and the link to the conference:
http://tinyurl.com/3kut4k5
And the program, which is below:
Crisis in the Eurozone
A Workshop of the EU Center of Excellence
At the LBJ School of Public Affairs
The University of Texas at AustinProgram
*confirmedThursday, November 3, 2011
8.00 Breakfast
8.30 Welcome Prof. Douglas Biow*
8: 35 Introductory remarks from Maciej Pisarski, Deputy Chief of Mission, Embassy of Poland*
8:45 Opening Remarks from Conference Organizer Prof. James Galbraith*9.00 – 10.30 The European System: Dream or Nightmare?
Chair: Professor Gary Freeman*Bruno Amoroso, Roskilde University*
Terri Givens, The University of Texas at Austin*
Alain Parguez, University of Besancon*
Matias Vernengo, University of Utah*10.45 – 12.00 Why the Crisis in the Eurozone?
Chair: Professor Frank Gavin*Heiner Flassbeck, UNCTAD*
Robert Guttmann, Hofstra University and University of Paris* Jan Toporowski, University of London*
Gilles Raveaud, Institute of European Studies, University of Paris*12.15 Lunch. Cosponsored by the MGPS International Colloquium Speakers’
SeriesWelcomes by Dean Randy Diehl* and Dean Robert Hutchings* Speaker: Yanis
Varoufakis, University of Athens, “The Modest Proposal”
Introduced by James Galbraith2.00 – 3.30. Can the Modest Proposal Save Europe?
Chair: Professor Jeremi Suri*Joerg Bibow, Skidmore College*
Kunibert Raffer, University of Vienna*
Yanis Varoufakis, University of Athens*
Comments: Steven Cohen, University of California3.45 – 5.15 Eurobonds, the Green New Deal and other Euro-Solutions
Chair: Maciej Pisarski, DCM, Embassy of Poland.*Marshall Auerback, Levy Economics Institute*
Olivier Giovannoni, Bard College*
Thomas Palley,Economics for Democratic & Open Societies*
Comments: Richard Parker, Harvard UniversityFriday, November 4, 2011
8.30 Breakfast
9.00 – 10.30 If Europe Fails Chair: Professor Michael Brenner*
Steven Cohen, University of California, Berkeley*
Norman Birnbaum, Georgetown University Law Center*
Richard Parker, Harvard University*
Comments: Will Inboden, LBJ School10.45 – 12.15 Concluding Roundtable
Chair: Professor James Galbraith*Amoroso, Bibow, Guttmann, Parguez, Raffer, Toporowski, Varoufakis
Cross posted from the blog Prairie Weather.
The copyrighted cartoon by Tom Janssen, The Netherlands, is licensed to run on TMV. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
3 Responses to “Greece: Bracing Ourselves for Financial Trouble”
I would opt for default.
The last 2 rounds of austerity measures have only made things work. This is a shotgun wedding, and Greece is losing autonomy. Better to restart the painful process earlier, so we can all get on with our lives.
I would opt for default.
The last 2 rounds of austerity measures have only made things worse. Higher unemployment. More poverty. Less opportunity. How did this help Greeks?
This is a shotgun wedding, and Greece is losing autonomy. They have a weak bargaining position and hence get dragged kicking and screaming.
Europe at large refuses to let them fall, so here we are for “round 3?. The only thing that has fundamentally changed is that the referendum allows Greeks to determine their own fate — which of course has the markets in panic because the Greeks mostly dont see the offer as a good one.
Sticks and bones may break your bones.
Literally.
The Greeks are nasty, shifty and provincial people. I recall when a US and a UK diplomat were both assassinated in Athens some 15 years ago, most Greeks and their political class (from hard left to center-left) cheered. I’d kick them out of the EU and NATO, and let them fend for themselves. The Turks have more honor, and they pay their bills.