Is Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani Stumbling?

NOTE: This was posted with the wrong byline but itis now corrected.

He’s considered the present front-runner. He still has an aura of heroism in the wake of 911 surrounding him. He has enjoyed support from independent voters in the past and from a segment of Democrats.

But now, in his difficult task of trying to woo more conservative and ideologically anchored Republicans far and wide to get the Republican 2008 Presidential nomination the operative question becomes: is former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani stumbling?

The Politico has a story based on a tip “from a rival campaign” (which is easy to guess in political stories) that is likely to do deep damage to Giuliani among some parts of the Republican electorate:

Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani in his campaign appearances this year has stated that he personally abhors abortion, even though he supports keeping a legal right to choose. But records show that in the ’90s he contributed money at least six times to Planned Parenthood, one of the country’s leading abortion rights groups and its top provider of abortions.

Federal tax returns made public by the former New York mayor show that he and his then-wife, Donna Hanover, made personal donations to national, state and city chapters of Planned Parenthood totaling $900 in 1993, 1994, 1998 and 1999.

The returns have been on the public record for years, but the detail about Giuliani’s support for Planned Parenthood — along with e-mailed copies of the returns — was provided to The Politico by aides to a rival campaign, who insisted on not being identified.

But that’s not the only factor that seems to be hurting Giuliani.

Robert Novak, in his latest Evans-Novak Report, says Giuliani’s performance in last week’s televised debate was not-ready-for-prime-time and not-ready-for-primary-victories that rely on Republicans concerned about the abortion issue:

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) had the worst performance of any candidate in the Republican debate. Despite months of preparation on how to address the abortion issue, he was all over the map, very uncertain of himself. His shoulder-shrugging answer that the repeal of Roe v. Wade would be “okay” sounded quite flippant — after years of defending the decision, it was a poor answer, given as though the topic were not serious. His repeated statement that he “hates” abortion is getting old. His answer on public funding for abortion made no sense. His answer on the influence of Christian conservatives effectively amounted to a duck.

Giuliani can certainly learn to give better answers, but his poor performance in debate corresponded with a drop in the polls. He is currently at his lowest point of the year with 25 percent in CNN’s poll, although he remains the frontrunner. His problems in the coming months will likely come from places other than his failure to give good answers on abortion. For example, a video is currently circulating on the Internet in which Giuliani praises his wife — a controversial figure for a number of reasons — as an expert on biological weapons (she previously worked in pharmaceutical sales). His ties to Bernard Kerik remain potentially problematic as well.

But, as the Los Angeles Times reports today, Giuliani’s foes see abortion as his his most vulnerable political spot.

The L.A. Times piece also — rightfully or wrongfully (we have no idea) — makes you go “hmmmmmmmm” when you read about the Giuliani contributions surfacing and which campaign is leaping all over it:

This week, reports surfaced anew that Giuliani had donated $900 during the 1990s to Planned Parenthood, the nation’s leading abortion provider. The reports, in turn, led the top campaign strategist for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) to suggest Tuesday that Giuliani’s position was unacceptable for a Republican standard-bearer.

“He’s well outside the mainstream of rank-and-file Republicans on this issue, not only as someone who is pro-abortion, but someone who has supported one of the most radical pro-abortion groups in the country,” John Weaver, the McCain strategist, said in a telephone interview.

Weaver’s remarks came a day after McCain had said it would be tough for a Republican who favored abortion rights to win the nomination.

“I think it’s one of the fundamental principles of a conservative to have respect and commitment to the dignity of human life, both the born and unborn,” McCain told the Associated Press in Iowa.

Giuliani’s lead in public opinion surveys has raised the question of what it would mean for the party to nominate an abortion-rights supporter.

In reality, Giuliani and McCain are in the same leaky political boat.

Both of them are now on the national stage because they previously enjoyed strong, warm and admiring support from some Democrats, independents and moderates. But in order to get the Republican presidential nomination they have to convince conservative primary voters that they are one of them.

They can do that by trying to subtly change or not so subtly shift previous positions (look up Mitt Romney in the political dictionary) and that could work.

But if you look at the polls, Giuliani and McCain have both lost huge chunks of non-GOP support to their political high-wire acts. Most Democrats, Republicans and independents won’t trust someone who has run far to the right and comes back later to present themselves as more moderate and bipartisan — unless their name is Arnold Schwarzenegger….

FOOTNOTE: This writer saw Giuliani on a cable news show today talking about the Democrats’ withdrawal timetable. He was trying to cover all bases. He held up a piece of paper and asked when in military history have we ever given a retreat timetable to the enemy (appeal to Republican primary voters who support the Iraq war). And in continuing his argument he made sure to mention that the war’s critics are patriotic and support the troops (soothe feelings of Democratic centrists, independents and moderates who may have felt his past comments sounded too much like Dick Cheney’s)