Why Syria Is Different Than Libya. Or Is It?
What is happening in Syria would appear to be pretty much a carbon copy of the bloody events in Libya earlier this year: A brutal dictator cracks down on pro-democracy demonstrations and sics his army and their tanks on protesters. A NATO-imposed no-fly zone over Libya turned the tide there and eventual forced the ouster of Colonel Moammar el-Qaddafi, who in turn was fatally savaged by rebel liberators.
Yet despite the similarities, NATO has all but ruled out the possibility of establishing a no-fly zone in Syria after, or perhaps merely coincidental with, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad warning that any western intervention would cause an “earthquake” that would “burn the whole region” and turn his country into “another Afghanistan.”
Quaddafi said the same thing early and often, so why is NATO so diffident given the success of its Libya mission? The easy answer is the Libya has lots of something Syria does not — oil. But it is not that simple.
NATO officials say the Libya “template” is unlikely to work in Syria and such a mission lacks both international consensus and wider regional support, which was more or less the case when the Libyan no-fly zone was established in March.
The UN Security Council would need to approve any Syrian operation and that step is unlikely given the opposition of China and Russia, which has historic ties with Syria.
“We would need a clear mandate from the international community, as well as support from the Arab League and Syria’s neighbors,” a NATO official told The Guardian, adding that so far “no-one had asked” for NATO’s help.
“Syria is different in every respect from Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen. The history is different. The politics is different. Syria is the hub in this region,” the official said. “It is the fault line, and if you play with the ground you will cause an earthquake . . . . Do you want so see another Afghanistan?”
Well, no.
Yet Assad has been every bit as bloodthirsty as Quaddafi. Some 3,000 protesters have been killed since the uprising began in mid-March. Assad has admitted that “many mistakes” have been made by his army, but says his regime is now battling “terrorists,” which the protesters on the whole are most certainly not.
Although the Arab Spring awakenings in the Middle East and North Africa have been fairly similar, the progression of these mini-revolutions have varied as have the outcomes. This would seem to argue against a one-size-fits-all no-fly approach to hard heads like Assad and Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, and yet the slaughter continues in both countries.
11 Responses to “Why Syria Is Different Than Libya. Or Is It?”
Libya didn’t have a powerful friend, Syria does.
Libya’s rebelleion was also more widespread. They actually managed to seize large sections of the country and hold it for awhile until Quadaffi got his act together. The Syrian uprising is not that big yet. The question that should determine intervention is can they do it themselves or do we have to do it for them. In Libya’s case we only had to supply support and targeted bombing. We didn’t need to send in tanks to crush the govt forces. With our support they were able to fight for their own freedom, much like we were able to win our freedom with help from the French. But it wasn’t our troops marching into the Libyan capital, it was the Libyan people, and that makes all the difference.
Syria is not there yet. If we assisted them we’d have to carry the ball across the finish line, which makes us occupiers not supporters of freedom. Different situation, different gameplan.
The UN Security Council would need to approve any Syrian operation and that step is unlikely given the opposition of China and Russia, which has historic ties with Syria.
NATO did not have UN backing in Kosovo but started bombing anyway, citing an “international humanitarian emergency”. The precedent has certainly been set.
Good article by the way, Shaun.
Wll, I’ve spent time in Damascus and Aleppo, and I’m on my way soon to Tunis and Tripoli, as well as Algiers, inshallah. Ahh, you Americans can never figure out anything about anything, for just two reasons. You don’t travel, and you don’t read, not history, literature, nothing unless it’s some claptrap sentimental nonsense. I’m reading Rock the Casbah, and that dozy bint spent a lifetime in the ME and apparently sttill has no friggin clue what has been going on for last century. My advice: opine less, learn more.
mn:
Your larger point is taken but careful about painting with too broad a brush.
Between Joe Gandelman and I we have traveled to dozens of foreign lands as journalists. I did the foreign correspondent bit out of Tokyo for three years and saw every Asian country save for China, which was only beginning to open up to Americans.
My Middle East-African chops are certainly not as good as yours, but I wrong this post with confidence and a good deal of perspective, but I have been on every continent save for Australia.
I have written a longish post for publication next week on whether India should try on its super power shoes and see if they fit. I actually did some original reporting (gasp!), so don’t sell the quality of the blogging here too short.
Want the real measure, ask yourself which multimillion/multibillion dollar contributors to american political campaigns are likely to be hacked off at Assad. we KNOW that Quaddafi was using negotiation muscle with big oil companies and making demands that cost them money, does Assad have the same threat-of-flex, or not? IIRC, Syria has no oil reserves, isn’t on any current major trade routes, and has no valuable natural resources of its own.
Which means, likely, that there will be no UN resolution, no NATO action, and thus, there will be an absence of ‘no fly zones’ and the use of american bombs to change the regime.
sorry, but follow the money-they don’t care who dies, as long as they do so far away. Af’stan has mineral riches and rare earths (needed for ‘green energy’ jobs), Iraq had oil AND strategic position on the persian gulf. Syria? Syria exists mostly to arm Palestinians and bully Lebanese, they got nuffin’.
well, the ME is not my primary area of interest, but I’ve been to most of the Arab countries, most of the majority Muslim countries, and I’m learning Arabic. I guess I’m just tired of all the almost entirely uninformed commentary I read, ranging from “Islam is a religion of peace” blather to “let’s kill all them Arabs, oh and we have to stop sharia” nonsense, with the rest being much like bit. Yeah, Syria’s not Libya. And Mexico’s not Canada. I knew that already, tell me something new and insightful. Eh, this piece isn’t so bad, I read a supposedly high brow site nonsense that’s sourced on right-wing Israeli websites quoting unnmamed Palistinian websites for proof that Obama’s gonna sell Egypt nukes. Because he’s a secret Muslim, I guess.
Mark… I guess we visited some of the same places at rather different times, and under very different conditions. I carried a rifle for Uncle Sam and the Corporations down there in the early nineties. (as the late Marine General said, “War is a Racket”).
Get your krazy Konspiracies right-it’s DEMs who said Obama was a Kenyan Muslim-right there in 2008, during the primaries.
The Conservative angle is that he’s a corrupt chicago machine pol with marxist ties to guys like Bill Ayers.
Of course, the reality is, he’s a corrupt machine pol with ties to Wall Street, but…y’know-Marxists, Wall Street, they’re both left-wing anticapitalist, anti freedom, anti-liberty and pro-foreign-intervention when they’re losing money, it’s only a difference of degree and whether they want to make the bombs themselves, or subcontract it to the USAF and Navy.
MN, even though your sarcasm is much worse than mine, I still enjoy your insights into the ME. Thanks.
Some bombing or artillery fire in Yemen today also.
Shame, I thought old Saleh was not such a bad guy. I believe some of these Arab nations that are going bonkers for democracy will rue the day they overthrew some of these governments. Because, I don’t think they are going to get what they want. Indeed none of them have to date. Maybe Tunisia, maybe not.
Allen, I think they’re getting EXACTLY what they want…or at least, what they THINK they want. The real problem is whether or not it’s actually DESIRABLE. It will be very interesting to see what kind of standard-of-living the Libyans enjoy, once they’ve finished off the last of Quaddafi’s technocrats. (Recall-HIS administration built their water-supply network. can they maintain it themselves, or will it become French property in all but name?)
Same way, I wonder how well Syria will do without Assad forcing them, sometimes at gunpoint, out of the twelfth century?
Dictatorships happen for a REASON. Sometimes it’s foreign capital, sometimes it’s just that things really ARE that bad without a ruthless (even psychotic) leader.
You really DO get the kind of government you deserve, you know…or at least, the kind you earn through your combined actions and demands.