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The 2007 French Presidential Election
Earlier today at The Reaction, well before polls opened, I offered some analysis of today’s presidential election in France. You can find that post here.
For more on the leading candidate, Nicolas Sarkozy, see here. For more on the two other top candidates, Ségolène Royal and François Bayrou, see here and here.
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Here’s the latest from the BBC:
Centre-right leader Nicolas Sarkozy will meet Socialist Segolene Royal in the run-off of France’s presidential election on 6 May, exit polls suggest.
Mr Sarkozy, a former interior minister, came first with 30%, ahead of Ms Royal, who is bidding to be France’s first woman president, on 25.2%.
Centrist Francois Bayrou got 18.3%, and far-right Jean-Marie Le Pen 11.5%.
Voting throughout the day reached record numbers, with turnout put at 84% — the highest for nearly 50 years.
A strong showing for Sarkozy, as well as for Royal, if the numbers hold up. Bayrou apparently hasn’t won over enough of the centrist undecideds to mount a challenge for second. And — and this is very good news — there’s been no “bump” for Le Pen, which means Sarkozy may have been quite successful in his efforts to reach out to rightist voters (which could hurt him in the second round).
The question now is whether a unified left-center opposition to Sarkozy will emerge out of this round. Le Pen’s supporters presumably will go with Sarkozy. Will Bayrou’s go with Royal?
5 Responses to “The 2007 French Presidential Election”
As I’ve told others for months, I’d be more than happy with a President Royal, for while she’s not pro-USA like Sarkozy, she’s a joy to view.
To answer your question Michael: No.
I don’t see how Royal can win this. Sarkozy will win.
I think that Michael vdG is calling this about right, Michael. Look at the actual vote totals. I don’t think it’s conceivable that Le Pen voters will turn to Royal. They’ll either vote Sarkozy or stay home. The number of people that voted for Gauche parties other than the Socialists is about the same as the number of those who voted for Le Pen.
That leaves those who voted for Bayrou. If they’re voting “anyone but Sarkozy or Royal”, they’ll probably stay home. That would give Sarkozy the victory.
Otherwise it depends on how they break. If they split evenly, Sarkozy wins.
[...] Some Americans are watching how this plays out. Michael Stickings at “The Moderate Voice” wonders how things will line up – “The question now is whether a unified left-center opposition to Sarkozy will emerge out of this round. Le Pen’s supporters presumably will go with Sarkozy. Will Bayrou’s go with Royal?” [...]
Michael,
Just to complete your report:
Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal, the two top scorers in the 1st round of the French presidential election, 31.11% and 25.83% respectively, have 11 days to convince French voters to elect them president of the Republic.
A televised debate on 2nd May has been set between the protagonists. Negotiations between key men of the right-wing UMP and left-wing Socialist Party are underway to outline the debate’s ‘rules of engagement’. The runoff election is on 6th May.
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Personally, Ségolène Royal’s campaign rhetorics have always turned around a “maternal presidency” and the only time she vividly describes her would-be leadership is when she sums up her speeches with the phrase “l’ordre juste” (akin to some form of “a disciplined society”) but even then, Ms Royal fails to inject further substance to her idea as to what the role of a French president truly is. (Image captures from Le Monde)
Ms Royal takes extreme care of her words when she delivers them to her public, not wanting to be seen to be too hard nor too soft, neither too hardline left-wing nor veering towards the center either.
The only time she gets really passionate about the subject of ‘leadership’ and how to get France out of the economic doldrums, is when she goes into some kind of attack frenzy against Nicolas Sarkozy, on whose aggressive personality she clearly wants to capitalize (she absolutely avoids touching the issue of uncontrolled immigration), all the while insisting that hers is a calm demeanour, something she’s clearly borrowed from her former mentor, Socialist François Mitterand, “La Force Tranquile”.
But typical of a campaign run on fear and hate of the French right embodied by Sarkozy, once hardline left-wing Royal and Socialist Party stalwarts describe a Sarkozy presidency with words that evoke ‘fear’, ‘danger’, ‘public confrontation’ – uncanny similitude with what President Bush used in his campaign diatribes to win his second term – and go as far as delivering an ‘extremist’ view that a right-wing Sarkozy presidency could provoke a ‘civil war.’ How incredibly and utterly stupid.
One thing is certain: We don’t need a nanny president in France.
I voted for Nicolas Sarkozy in the first round (and will vote for him again on 6th May) not only because I’m a traditional right-wing UMP member but also because I firmly believe, Nicolas Sarkozy has a much needed modern and forward looking presidential platform that France needs today, a platform that cannot be run by the cautious, outmoded ideologies of the French Socialist Party.
I do believe that Sarkozy will succeed President Chirac in the Elysée.