Why the Iraq Surge Already Is a Failure
It has been a hugely embarrassing month for President Bush’s last-gasp “surge” strategy.
It is not surprising that casualties are way up and that 13 days into April some 55 U.S. troops have been killed, a rate of death higher than any month since Baghdad fell four years ago this week.
A spike in deaths was to be expected because of increased action in the capital and elsewhere, so we can put that unpleasant reality aside and move on to two hugely symbolic events on Thursday that should not have happened if the surge was working:
* The death of a Sunni member of Parliament (lowered from eight deaths originally reported) in a suicide bomb attack just a few feet from the main chamber of the Iraqi Parliament. Twenty-two people were wounded, including 11 members of Parliament.
Parliament reconvened today to condemn the attack, which apparently was by an insurgent group with ties to Al Qaeda, but few members attended. (Desperate to squeeze even a drop of good news from the bad, some conservative bloggers remind us that there is an ongoing feud between Al Qaeda and an insurgency umbrella group. Bawaaaaah!)
* The destruction by a tanker truck bomb of the heavily traveled Sarafiya Bridge across the Tigris, an oft photographed symbol of a Baghdad that no longer exists except in the delusional minds of John McCain and his ilk. Six people died.
The grim reality is that despite the best efforts of U.S. commanders and their troops, Iraq continues to become less safe and the war has now reached into the heart of what was supposed to be the most secure place in the entire country – the hermetically sealed Green Zone.
No Americans were wounded in the attacks. Both appeared to have been indiscriminate, targeting Iraqis in general as a civil war unleashed by the botched U.S. occupation rages on.
In a sense, the occupiers have become a sideshow and the spike in American deaths is merely collateral damage in a larger drama that will continue despite the surge – and to an extent because of it.
There is collateral damage in Washington, as well.
An isolated President Bush is yet again looking for a way to rescue failed military, political and reconstruction strategies that never have been in sync over the last four years because of his manifold leadership failures.
The latest solution is to find a high-level coordinator – in effect a war czar — to see the surge through, but everyone approached to date has turned down the White House.
Pathetic.
Grimmer still is the news that nearly half of the West Point class of 2001, the first class affected by the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, are opting out of continuing to serve in the Army at the end of their required 5 years. The reason most often given is repeated tours in the war zones, a phenomenon similar to that seen at the end of the Vietnam War.
Bush has stretched the Army to the breaking point and now it is losing its best and brightest because of a failed presidency and a failed war.
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14 Responses to “Why the Iraq Surge Already Is a Failure”
One nitpick on the article about West Point graduates. It said that West Point was going to guarantee graduate school for all those who stay three more years beyond their initial commitment.
I do not believe that the U.S. Military Academy can make such a guarantee. The retention policy for officers (and all military personnel) is a function of the U.S. Army Human Resources Command. In looking at the Human Resources Command (HRC) policy on offering additional graduate school opportunities to outstanding junior officers it looks like it applies to all officer and not just to West Point Graduates and that it is not a guaranteed program.
This surge is too late and too little. Reality is the Bush&Co want to be seen to be doing something, but they are clueless. How bolder can the writing on the wall be ?
I would agree that they are clueless. However pulling out is wrong.
Redeploying is the key and cutting the force from say its present levels to around 80,000 troops would be a strategic move, keep us out of the fighting, keep us in the middle east, prevent Iran from basically invading Iraq and hopefully prevent the Sunni/Shia civil war from spreading.
Us forces should be cut about in half. Redeployed and given the mission of patroling borders to prevent new insurgents and new weapons from entering Iraq. That should have been the mission a year ago. It is time to let the Iraqis work this out, but it is not time to come home.
The question is not whether pulling out of Iraq is wrong or right.
The resolution of this major crisis depends on devising an urgent strategy, with at least five important/friendly nations providing the input as to how best the US forces could get out of Iraq within six months. This advice can also be sought at a confidential/private level.
(I don’t understand why, with a “friendly” secretary-general at the helm, the US still feels shy in directly involving the United Nations in this crisis).
The Bush administration seems bankrupt in suggesting a strategy, and no new “War Czar” can help at this stage. The water has crossed the danger mark and has risen up to the nose in the past four years. My hunch is that even a wait for six months to disengage would be too much.
No point in lamenting or pointing fingers at this stage.
It is a great pity that when the United States is in a totally stuck situation in Iraq and looks so vulnerable, there is not a single US-friendly world leader who would talk sense and try to persuade the US administration to save America and its people from certain ruin (by its continued engagement in Iraq).
But then some may ask that when the US administration and many American commentators are still thinking/dreaming of retaining/safeguarding the “gold pot”, at whatever cost (even though the ship is sinking), why should world leaders bother to get involved in a thankless task?
Swaraaj:
Asking world leaders to find a way out of Iraq is sensible, but their advice was ignored, denigrated and ridiculed if it didn’t fit the neocon mantra when the U.S. was blustering its way into Iraq.
Shaun – Because of W’s arrogance and hubris he can’t go to world leaders and ask for their help. It would amount to admitting a BIG mistake and he won’t even do it in the US. I believe that the Saudis have given up on Bush Jr and their latest actions are to try to stabilize their own backyard. I doubt that Cheney lead the discussion when he visited awhile back.
Past is past, as I said. No more finger pointing.
The world leaders/community will have to work towards resolving the crisis becaue of the agony of the ordinary folks in Iraq today (and the high death rate of innocent American/Iraqi soldiers and the consequent trauma their families are undergoing).
…And then there is a serious possibility of this crisis engulfing the American public in the not too distant future. The USA is certainly not a nation inhabited by a bunch of hoodlums..it is a civilised member of the comity of nations.
What we are witnessing is not an American-Iraqi crisis…but a crisis facing the entire humanity.
How long can the world leaders close their eyes and think (like a rat when it sees the mouse) that this is a crisis is of American making and it is they alone who should resolve it.
I think each and every world leader is guilty of aggravating the Iraq crisis and contributing to the mass murder of innocent people there.
Outside advice is neither welcome nor considered in the Bush administration. It’s easy to shift the blame to other world leaders, but Bush broke it, and he should fix it.
Bush has accomplished the opposite of what he set out to do. He brought this great nation to its knees by destroying our military and trapping our troops in Iraq. Instead of a stable democracy, he and Cheney have created chaos and genocide, for a people who had already suffered mightily under previous administrations’ sanctions. I agree with those who say this is a worse foreign policy blunder than Viet Nam, because Vietnam as awful as the end was, did not affect access to a strategic resource or embolden terrorists worldwide to rise up against us.
Rather than following the sage advice of the ISG, who rightly recognized that this was a disaster, W decided to follow his own course. Why? Because the ISG plan just minimized the damage- it didn’t give him his victory. The surge was dreamed up by a neocon at the AEI. When the JCS, Casey and Abizaid rejected the plan, Bush shopped for a counterinsurgency expert, and told the public it was Petraeus’ plan. (very similar to how Colin Powell’s prestige was attached to the initial invasion plan). Republicans in Congress will obviously only recognize that this is failing when their own miserable hides are put on the line-so look for them to abandon Bush as the 2008 election nears.
From the Globe article:
Hmmm?
Thirty-year old graduates of the service academies, have the capacity to discern “Schlesingerian” swings in the political, and much more importantly — the cultural, sensibilities of the nation. They are reluctant to make a bet on their future given the Spenglerian mood about. The question they are asking is. “Why fight for those who would surrender their own civilization?” (That is from the “horse’s mouth,” as they say.)
Yes. That “insurgent group” is also known as Sunni Baathists. They targeted moderate Parliamentarians.
We shall forthwith withdraw in the face of “symbols,” and surrender to the al-McLuhanists.
With all due respect, the first point is a lie. The second point is has some truthiness at best, and is a base non sequitur: they fight for the nation and abhor failure. (They are honor bound to do so, so don’t give me any po-mo baloney about real-world considerations).
BTW. Kurt Vonnegut: Ave Atque Vale. Thank you for HARRISON BERGERON! A most prescient vision.
[...] As noted here earlier today, the original death toll for the suicide bombing outside the Iraqi Parliament was eight but has been revised downward to one by U.S. authorities. [...]
“I would agree that they are clueless. However pulling out is wrong.”
Actually I believe pulling out is the only sensible solution at this point. I say this knowing full well that it will become an even bigger bloodbath than it is now. However, in the end, however long that takes, there will actually be a gov’t in Iraq, and it will stablize to the point where other gov’ts can actually approach the country and help.
The way things stand now no one is in control. No one can speak for Iraq as a nation. I’d say we should pick one of the dominant groups and back them but NONE of them are anything but brutal theocractic thugs, and we can’t actually back any of them. Until there is a dominant group that excercises actual control over the nation there is little the US or any other gov’t can do to stop the bloodshed or make life better for the Iraqi people. Its going to have to get worse before it gets better.
I have recently been to the front lines in the most dangerous city in Iraq- Ramadi in the Al Anbar Province. There have been many improvements and positive stories that I personally witnessed that were never covered on any media outlet. Hmmm wonder why, but thats a whole other story. When I hear your talk above of the President pushing our military to the breaking point I hear nothing of Past Pres. Clinton shrinking our military. Army 10 Divisions to 5. Navy 560 battleships to 362. Taking a Reagan built US Army from 1.5million to 500,000. And we wonder why were using our Army National Guard more. hmmm Thanks Bill!!! IF your going to point fingers, lets point at all people not just the ones you love to hate. I fought for your freedom to say the things you have, but it doesnt mean I have to like them or not dispute them with facts and truth. I was there, I didnt have to get my information from a reporter that hung out in Baghdad and got second or third hand information from anything outside his nice confines because he was to scared to go out to far. I could go on and on but whats the use, you dont want all facts here, just the ones you can twist to fit your agenda. Thats alright though, because while you waste your time trying to hate a man or his ideas a soldier or marine is protecting your right to do it. Freedom isnt Free!!!!!!!! God Bless America!!!!!!!! The Best Country this World has ever know!!!!!!!!!!!
See Essentially Contested America
http://www.essentiallycontestedamerica.org/2007/04/16#a1053