Escalation
I have spent several posts on Turkey, the PKK and Iraq now, constantly repeating my hope that Turkey won’t invade Iraq just yet because doing so could bring about chaos in Iraq’s most peaceful and stable region.
Well… things have gotten worse: The Turkish army has asked the Turkish government’s permission to carry out attacks against PKK camps in Northern Iraq. Cernig comments that this will put the U.S. in an incredibly difficult position: the U.S. cannot afford to lose the support of the Kurds, but it also cannot oppose NATO ally Turkey.
Let’s hope that the Turkish government will say no… although, it has to be said, the army has a lot of influence and power in Turkey. If it truly wants to attack, it will get permission.
This is very bad news.
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14 Responses to “Escalation”
I mentioned this already, elsewhere.
What does it mean? Well, Turkey is a US ally but perhaps Bush carries less weight or even respect than he used to in the Turkish government.
Were those WMDs worth this hornets nest?
Oh wait, there weren’t any WMDs…
> Oh wait, there weren’t any WMDs…
There were WMDs before. They not only existed, they were used by Iraq on those whom Turkey may attack, the Kurds, as well as on the Iranians, who also want to attack Kurds (their own or Kurds in Iraq if things get really out of hand). Iraq continued to lie and play games with the rest of the world. Normal people reasonably assumed Iraq had WMDs. Even the anti-war crowd said there should be no war because Iraqi WMDs might be used if Hussein chose to be crazy enough.
Michael I have been worrying about this also. Now it will happen. I’m curious how it will turn out because ostensibly the Turks will have to ask the United States for permission to invade, since we assumed responsibility for defense of Iraq. You see, friends, allies or whatever, all nations act in their own self interest. When they don’t, they get screwed, like Briton. The secret to success, is knowing if the action you want to take will turn out in your own self interest. It is leadership’s responsibility to get it right, but when they don’t their can be massive geopolitical shifts. Entire nations can disappear. Millions can die.
So what do we do now? Go to war with an ally? Or do we sellout the Kurds, probably the only competent ethnic force within Iraq. Do you see how things get worse as time goes on? Cleary that is part of the scenario the Bush administration, in their arrogance, never considered before they “assumed� they knew what they were doing. We must get out of Iraq now and let the chips fall where they may. We need reshuffle the deck and play a different hand, not bet the farm on a loser.
> Or do we sell[ ]out the Kurds,
> probably the only competent
> ethnic force within Iraq.
and devoted to things like democracy, development, literacy?
Do we sell them out again? (Bush Sr. did so before. A theme I’ve always wondered about with Jr., that could be a Dim campaign theme: “Like Father, Like Son?”)
http://www.trekearth.com/gallery/Middle_East/Iraq/photo602841.htm
http://www.newrozfilms.com/jiyan_review.htm
http://www.kdp.pp.se/old/chemical.html
http://usinfo.state.gov/products/pubs/iraq/warning.htm
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/wideangle/shows/saddam/photo.html
http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/iraq203/crossroads03.html
http://www.irag.org.uk/photos/photos_kurds.shtml
DLS- the WMD’s were used on the Kurds and the Shiites in the 90′s. The rest of them were destroyed in the bombing in 1998. The few that were uncovered were not operational- and Saddam had discontinued his nuclear program long before we invaded. Rumsfeld brought up invading Iraq on 9/12 at 3pm- he wasn’t waiting for any evidence from the CIA. Doug Feith at DOD dug up his own manufactured evidence. We were had by the neocons- who wanted to go into Iraq in the 90′s. The PNAC signatories who urged Clinton to go in in 1997 ended up in Bush’s administration.
Next you’ll say you got eggs from the Easter Bunny!
> Rumsfeld brought up invading Iraq
> on 9/12 at 3pm- he wasn’t waiting
> for any evidence from the CIA.
Actually, I have discussed elsewhere (not on this site) that Bush Jr. may have had “regime change” in mind since the attempt by Hussein to kill Bush Sr.
> We were had by the neocons- who wanted to go into Iraq in the 90’s
If anything it was a massive intelligence failure, and Hussein may have been bluffing — wrong choice.
You were the first and right to respond to a key issue that I chose not to “push”:
> > > Oh wait, there weren’t any WMDs…
> > There were WMDs before.
> the WMD’s were used on the Kurds and the Shiites in the 90’s [...]
Reasonable people not only knew there were WMDs before, and believed there were still WMDs (nobody could know that all the rest were destroyed, as you wrote) and given Hussein’s game-playing, assumed there were more WMDs and they might be used such as if Baghdad were entered.
As it is, the war was won, but not the peace (which is what organizations such as CSIS were clamoring about before the war ended) and the public is tired of the lack of progress in Iraq, as you’ve seen in the 2006 elections.
As to the Bush administration now, it’s currently imploding or fracturing (probably more like the latter given the occasional departures). I can understand their remaining confrontational toward the Dims, but not the more amateurish nonsense (speaking to Congress but not under oath; subpaeonaed records “may be missing” [buying time to hide or destroy]).
DLS- Give me a break. All you have to do is listen to C-Span while necons are speaking and the neocon ideology of “John Wayne knows best” comes flowing to the for front of realization immediately! George W Bush has been placed in power from the very begining by the Oil Companies. This whole mess has Oil Company written all over it. I guess big Oil thinks it knows whats best for America.
Reasonable people believed Saddam may have had WMDs because we were lied to, period. Separate agencies (OSP etc) were set up to end round normal intelligence channels. When those channels disagreed, they were ignored in favor of the sexed up info. When evidence was largely agreed to be highly questionable, by the intelligence community, it was instead presented as probable instead. Failure of intelligence? Maybe.. yes, on Dumbya’s an crews part.
As to Turkey this is bad. But, lets not fool ourselves. Yes, the Kurdish region stable, but it is ruled by two dictatorial groups who tromp on freedom and human rights with nary a worry as well. These are not ‘good guys’ nor ‘very bad guys’ really. After all they are doing a darn sight better than the rest of Iraq. Hopefully we can resolve this between Turkey an ‘Kurdistan’ but while we are there I do not think the Kurds have a reason to compromise. They will bet any full out invasion will be blocked by the US.
There were plenty of reasonable people at the intelligence agencies pointing to evidence that Saddam was not our biggest threat after 9/11. The intention was there to invade Iraq or achieve regime change for years before that. 9/11 and the WMD’s were just the ruse to sell the American people on the war.
There were also plenty of intelligent people who warned that the war would not be the cakewalk they wanted it to be. W and Cheney ran over them, because their ideology trumped rationality. It always amazes me when the administration now says that no one knew it would be so difficult. And the faithful believe that line of bull because otherwise they’d have to realize they’d been had by a couple of con men.
The PKK and MEK are the US proxies to fight against and gather intelligence in Iran. While the MEK is on our DoS terror list the CIA and the US army supports and protects these groups. Turkey has a every right to attack these group to protect Turkey, after all W set a precedent with pre-emptive war. All W and the CIA has to do is rein in a know terrorist group, just like Hamas and Hezzbelloh. What say you MvdG and DLS?
> There were also plenty of intelligent
> people who warned that the war would
> not be the cakewalk they wanted it to be.
Or rather, securing the nation after the Iraqi military was defeated.
They were right, as are you.
CSIS, a frequent example I use, was squawking about the Iraq situation long before it became a problem.
http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_press/task,view/id,22/
Rudi said:
> The PKK and MEK are the US proxies
> to fight against and gather intelligence
> in Iran. While the MEK is on our DoS
> terror list the CIA and the US army
> supports and protects these groups.
The MEK in particular is messing in Iran.
> Turkey has a every right to attack these
> group to protect Turkey, after all W set
> a precedent with pre-emptive war.
No, no “moral equivalence” stuff…
If Turkey is attacked from Iraqi territory, it is logical it may strike back.
I’ll even concede that what you have here is a similarity to Iran, who is training terrorists in Iranian territory.
> All W and the CIA has to do is rein in a
> know terrorist group, just like Hamas and
> Hezzbelloh. What say you MvdG and DLS?
It may not be that simple or easy.
As it is, we are weak — we (USA) are now asking Turkey to calm down and refrain from any military action. Please, Turkey, don’t attack northern Iraq.