New Poll: Giuliani & Clinton in the Lead, McCain in Trouble

James Joyner has the results up the latest Gallup Poll: good news for Giuliani and Clinton, bad news for John McCain.

The April 2-5 Gallup Poll finds 38% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents favoring Giuliani for the 2008 nomination, well ahead of his closest pursuer, McCain (16%). Two unannounced but potential candidates — Gingrich and Thompson — tie for third at 10%. The remaining 10 candidates tested in the poll all score below 10%, led by Mitt Romney at 6%.� For McCain, this marks “his lowest level of support since Gallup began tracking preferences in November 2006. His high water mark was 28% in December, but his support dropped to an average of 21% in two March polls.

To me, McCain has already lost. Joyner points out that the “nomination likely won’t be decided for a year, so there’s still plenty of time for these numbers to change”, but I, quite simply, don’t see how McCain can make a big comeback. I don’t see it happening.

If there is one Republican that’s going to rise significantly in the polls, it is Romney, not McCain. Unless, of course, Fred Thompson announces his candidacy.