Bush & Immigration: Solution or More Problems?

President George W. Bush has re-inserted himself into one of the most controversial issues facing the United States: immigration reform.

Immigration reform has become the way to the graveyard in politics: with people dug into positions on both sides, solutions involving compromises are difficult since the second someone takes one position, one side becomes angry. Both sides see it as a moral issue. One analyst wonders if Bush can “pull a Clinton” and triangulate the issue.

Prediction: it’s going to be difficult. The New York Times:

President Bush said Monday that tougher enforcement and a new fence at the Mexican border had sharply reduced the influx of illegal immigrants, and he pressed Congress to pass a sweeping revision of the nation’s immigration laws.

“It’s amazing progress that’s been made,� Mr. Bush said on a return visit to a section of the border that he inspected 11 months ago.

In the last six months, the White House said, Border Patrol reports showed that apprehensions of illegal immigrants along the Mexican border fell by 30 percent, to 418,184, from 594,142 in the comparable period a year earlier. In the Yuma sector, which spans parts of Arizona and California, apprehensions fell by 68 percent, to 25,217, from 79,131 in the comparable period a year earlier.

There are now 13,000 Border Patrol agents, up from 9,000 a year earlier. The number will reach 18,000 by the end of next year, Mr. Bush said.

The White House interprets the decline in apprehensions as a sign that the tighter security is working.

“When you’re apprehending fewer people, it means fewer are trying to come across,� Mr. Bush said. “And fewer are trying to come across because we’re deterring people from attempting illegal border crossings in the first place.�

While Border Patrol commanders have expressed cautious optimism that a corner is being turned, immigration experts note that apprehension figures swing erratically over the years. The numbers can be driven by a variety of factors aside from enforcement, including weather, Latin American economics and decisions by illegal immigrants to make fewer trips back and forth between the United States and Mexico.

And, indeed, the numbers do fluctuate. Yours truly talks from personal experience. I covered immigration reform and border issues for several years as my beat on the San Diego Union when Ronald Reagan was President. And the numbers do occasionally see-saw, well-crafted solutions are usually coupled with well-intentioned predictions but, in the end, long lasting immigration reform has proven to be elusive to many administrations and lawmakers from both parties. Stabs at immigration reform have had various consequences or parts of plans that were not totally implemented.

The question: is Bush about to get himself caught (once again) in a pincer between those who seek some kind of an adjustment of the status of the many immigrants and their families already here, the political numbers-counters rightfully pointing to the growing influence of the nation’s Hispanic vote, and hard-line elements of his own party that don’t want anything even remotely resembling an amnesty — even a “temporary one?” CNN’s senior analyst Bill Schneider notes that Bush does have a chance to “triangulate” on immigration — but that his circumstances are far different than former President Bill Clinton’s when he sought to play off various sides to enact policy:

What kind of challenge does immigration reform pose for President Bush? Everybody favors better border security. The issue is what to do about the millions of illegal immigrants already in the United States.

President Bush favors a path to citizenship. “People who meet a reasonable number of conditions and pay a penalty of time and money should be able to apply for citizenship,” he said. (Watch President Bush on the need for immigration reform Video)

The Democrats running for president tend to agree with Bush. “Everybody who lives within those borders has a right to a life that is full of opportunity,” Sen. Barack Obama said.

But Republican candidates are split down the middle. Mitt Romney, Rep. Duncan Hunter, Rep. Ron Paul, Jim Gilmore and Rep. Tom Tancredo all oppose a path to citizenship.

….The other Republican candidates, Rudy Giuliani, Sen. John McCain, Sen. Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee and Tommy Thompson, all favor a path to citizenship for at least some illegal immigrants. “I know of no one who believes you can just round up 12 million people,” Giuliani said.

In other words: there is no firm CONSENSUS within the Republican Party at this point. So Bush could encounter problems with his own party, particularly as candidates jockey for position for the all-important GOP primary voters.

The president’s party is split. The opposition party, which tends to agree with the president on this issue, controls Congress. We’ve seen this situation before.

President Bill Clinton regarded welfare reform as a key part of his legacy. Clinton “triangulated” by reaching out to Republicans, who gained control of Congress in 1994. The result: When welfare reform came up for a vote in 1996, Democrats split down the middle. They voted 23 to 23 in the Senate and 98 to 98 in the House. But Republicans solidly supported Clinton on the issue.

The question: could Bush successfully “triangulate” the issue?

There’s one big difference: In 1996, Clinton was on his way to re-election with a job approval rating of 58 percent. But what is Bush’s latest job rating? Thirty-eight percent. It’s hard to triangulate when you don’t have much clout.

Bush may not want to triangulate. In 1996, Clinton co-opted the Republicans’ position on welfare reform. But Bush is moving away from the Democratic position on immigration by endorsing more stringent requirements for citizenship. It’s hard to see Democrats supporting Bush on this issue the way Republicans supported Clinton on welfare reform.

So: as time goes on, immigration could become yet one more issue marked by a notable partisan divide — and consensus will likely be elusive, once again.

The Washington Post’s Dan Froomkin also notes another factor:

Immigration is possibly the only significant political issue where the general outlines of Bush’s policy proposals engender more support from Democrats than from Republicans. So his immediate goal is trying to get a critical mass of the members of his own party to go along with him.

If he can accomplish that, the president will presumably swing back to gather up the Democrats — assuming he hasn’t gone too far in appeasing Republicans for the Democrats to stomach.

The chances of all this happening are slim. Delicate dances have never been Bush’s strong suit. Futhermore, this one may require more political clout than Bush has left.

If clout is money in the bank, Bush’s account is nearly empty. So to get through the immigration reform he seeks, as Froomkin notes, Bush will need quickly develop some political skills and bipartisan outreach — which he now lacks. And the Democrats would have to conclude that it was in their interest to work with Bush on an issue he’d have to make palatable for the GOP base.

Overall: the outlook for significant reform this year isn’t impossible — but it’s unlikely.