Fred Thompson: A Mixed Bag In Polls
Apr 4th, 2007 | 16 responses
Some new polls have bring good news and bad news for Fred Thompson, the former Senator turned TV actor who could well give the Republicans their first REAL “Law and Order” Presidential candidate.
The GOOD NEWS is that his stock is quickly rising among Republican voters. The person who should be most concerned should be former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, whose support is sagging. On the other hand, Arizona Senator John McCain should not feel terrific, either: he has been trying mightily to woo over GOPers who sandbagged his 2000 Presidential bid and Thompson seems to be hurting him as well.
The BAD NEWS is that many voters don’t know who Thompson is, even though he’s on a hit TV show (but, then, he is not the star on it but rather a solid character actor).
First, here’s some of the details on the GOOD NEWS, as supplied by Rasmussen Reports:
The addition of former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson (R) to the list of candidates shakes up the race for the GOP Presidential nomination.
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) remains on top, but his support dips below the 30% mark for the first time in seven weeks. With Thompson in the mix, Giuliani’s support tumbles to 26%, down nine points from a week ago. That’s the lowest level of support measured for Giuliani in any Rasmussen Reports poll this year.
Support for Arizona Senator John McCain remains steady at 16%, but McCain’s hold on second place is threatened by Thompson. The movie star turned Senator turned TV star weighs in with 14% support among those likely to vote in a GOP primary. Among Very Conservative voters, Giuliani attracts 20% support followed closely by Thompson at 19%, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 18% and McCain at 14%.
But if Thompson feel he’s destined to win something more tasty than an Emmy, he and his operatives
might seriously ponder this:
A new Gallup poll reveals that former Sen. Fred Thompson would face an uphill battle in a race for president. Right now, according to Gallup, 58% of adults know nothing about him.
In a way, that could be a positive: voters may feel they know all too much about some of the other candidates. E&P’s story goes on to say:
Four percent correctly identified him with the TV show “Law and Order”– the same number who expressed a wish that he run for president. Another 11% identified him, correctly, as an “actor.” Just 1% said he was a “conservative/true conservative” and another 1% know that he was or is a “politician.”
Frank Newport, director of the Gallup Poll, notes today that Thompson nevertheless came in third behind Sen. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani in a recent Gallup survey on GOP favorites. But in the new poll, Gallup asked a random sample, “What comes to your mind when you think about former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson?”
The results, Newport writes, “show that a large number of Republicans don’t know much at all about Thompson. A small percentage of those who do know him say he would be a good president, but others either talk about his acting career or offer vague generalities such as ‘I like him’ or ‘Nice guy.’
“What is most interesting about these data is the fact that two-thirds of Americans say that nothing at all comes to mind… In other words, despite his acting career, Thompson is not among the ranks of well-known politicians at this point….
So if you put it together, Thompson is viable because among Republicans support for Giuliani and McCain is wobbly. But, among general voters, Thompson will have a LOT of defining to do. The trick for him is that, if he’s a front-runner, he’s going to have to try and define himself for the country’s voters before his Republican opponents and the Democrats do. A clean slate is only clean until it’s covered with chalk…
UPDATE: But Thompson is getting good press. From the Washington correspondent of Great Britain’s The Independent:
A generation after one actor-politician transformed their party’s fortunes, could today’s battered and demoralised Republicans look to another one to carry their banner in next year’s presidential election?A few months ago, even a few weeks ago, the question would have been fanciful. But no longer, after Fred Thompson – one time performer in The Hunt for Red October and Die Hard 2, former senator for Tennessee and now to be seen in Law and Order – let slip recently he might enter an already crowded field of White House contenders.
The buzz began last month when the 64-year-old Mr Thompson remarked during an appearance on Fox News that he was “giving some thought” to running – even though he has not even the framework of a formal organisation in place, and has done no campaigning.
But those words alone were enough to stir the Republican presidential pot. A poll of likely party voters a few days later put him in third place with 12 per cent. Another poll showed him beating Hillary Clinton, the current Democratic frontrunner, by 44-43 per cent in a general election match-up.
The result amounts to a statistical dead heat but is, nonetheless, a remarkable feat for a man long out of the political limelight.
The reason, however, is evident. Mr Thompson not only possesses that elusive political star quality. He also is tailor-made to fill the opening for a viable, high-profile standard bearer of Republican conservatives – the party’s ideological driving force since that earlier actor-politician Ronald Reagan won the White House in 1980.
On the other hand, John McCain was a SCREAM several years ago when he did his John Ashcroft imitation on Saturday Night Live :
16 Responses to “Fred Thompson: A Mixed Bag In Polls”
You are right, in observing that many Americans do not know Fred Thompson yet. I had the privilage of voting for Thompson twice for the Senate. He was able to unify the Republicans and Independents in Tennessee and he had a very significant crossover vote of Reagan Democrats. He set records in his elections winning by landslides in the seat vacated by Al Gore.
Fred has not even formed an exploritory committee, and yet he is hurting the “First Tier” candidates. There is clearly an opportunity for someone to ignite the base of the GOP. He is the only one of those being talked about that seems to ignite the passion in the base. Listen to some the the videos I have found on AnotherRonaldReagan.com. America, watch and learn about Fred.
Better than Giuliani. Come on in, Fred.
Wait … he’s on his first marriage. Is that allowed for a GOP candidate?
I don’t think the cold name recognition test is too hard to overcome in short order.
If this speculative juggernaut continues, pretty soon the name and the “face” will be plastered over all media sources.
I suspect the “face” will improve the recognition stats considerably.
I’m sure I could find a poll in the not too distant past when the same non-recognition stats applied to Barack Obama. And they probably still apply to Richardson, Kucinich and Dodd.
If this is the biggest piece of bad news Rasmussen can come up with for Thompson……….
The Gallup poll is sloppily done – and its conclusion is misleading…. it doesn’t check for likely R primary voters (the most germane group right now), it doesn’t filter for Republicans in any fashion, its doesn’t filter for likely voters of any affiliation for the general election – its doesn’t even screen for registered voters… So all in all it generated a useless stat by being overly broad. At least Rasmussen properly frames the sample they are using.
Wishful thinking, my lib..er, moderate friend.
Being unknown is an advantage in a race in which 40% of the American people say that they will not, under any circumstances, vote for Hillary. It is also an asset. frankly, to have been out of sight during the Bush administration. If not for the rock star media he’s received (very little of it substantial), Barak Obama- who has less experience in national government than Senate Watergate Committee counsel and U.S. Senator Thompson- is just as unknown. And how well known was Bill Clinton at this point in 1991? Jimmy Carter in 1979?
Right now Thompson is running neck and neck with Hillary. For a candidate who hasn’t even announced, has no organization or budget, and is as unknown as you point out that he is with the electorate, that says something, nicht wahr? Thompson is the candidate the Democrats have the most reason to fear. And when you take away your liberal spin, the fact is that his present numbers with the general electorate as an unknown are quite ominous for the Democrats. When the voters do get to know Thompson (hard to be nominated by a major party, or even to be a major contender later in the race for the nomination, without becoming known), this very impressive man is going to give you guys on the Left nightmares for eight years.
Fred Thomson may be the best hope the GOP have right now. Very few in the US will vote for the Republicans after the idiot we have in the white house anyway. But they would vote for Fred Thomson, and in my judgment it would be a landslide victory.
cheers GR
Thompson is the answer. Simply put, he is Real! No bull, straight shooter. Our country needs and is ready for another Reagan.
Let me get this straight: Fred Thompson is beating Romney in the polls – handily – and he’s not even running. And yet, he’s somehow “unknown” by these “general voters?” Sounds like a disconnect here. I’m only seeing good news for Fred, since the GOP is embracing him, and they’re going to be doing the voting.
If you mean, and the pollster means by “general voters” Democrats and Independents, in most states they cannot vote in GOP primaries. Only likely primary voters count at the ballot box, so it’s a bit odd to be citing these “general voters” who somehow don’t know him as supposed “bad news.” But nice try! Looking for clouds in silver linings is a very “moderate” thing to do, especially when it comes to the threat of a true conservative like Fred T. getting into the race!
Pretty impressive array of support for Fred T here, and I’m inclined to agree at this early point that he’s got the best chance of any Republican currently being discussed to win in ’08.
I think the comparison to Obama is fair in terms of having the potential to ramp up quickly.
I won’t vote for him myself, but I hope he runs.
Being unknown is an advantage in a race in which 40% of the American people say that they will not, under any circumstances, vote for Hillary. It is also an asset. frankly, to have been out of sight during the Bush administration.
the writer of this article has it all wrong. not being well know with the voting public and being able to define yourself as you would like the voting public to know you is an asset NOTa libility
Fred Thompson has a true conservative track record, a rare find among the GOP nominee frontrunners. Yes, name recognition will be a hurdle, but a hurdle that can be overcome. His performance in recent polls as an unannounced candidate speaks volumes about what the American citizens are looking for in their presidential nominees.
The Draft Fred Thompson 2008 Committee being chaired by Congressman Duncan and Congressman Wamp launched a new website early today with a great deal of information and the official petition seeking to draft Fred. The address is http://www.fred08.com. The site encourages everyone interested in seeing Fred pursue the GOP nomination to fill out the petition.
http://www.fred08.com
He may be an instant VP preference if the GOP wants a RINO to run as President to attract or at least less disturb “moderate” voters, while as a VP offering may encourage the non-mushy voters to vote after all in 2008.
Why so much excitement for a guy with no experience running anything? No leadership in the public sector or private sector, yet he is ready to run a country of 300 million people? Being CEO of the United States is more complicated than memorizing lines for a TV show. Fred is a great guy, but not qualified to step into the President position-
Thompson actually has a lot of experience and a very long career as a public servant. He was the lawyer who asked the key question during the Watergate Investigations that led to Nixon’s eventual collapse. He’s served two terms in the Senate with at least one stint as the chair for the Committee on Government Affairs. During his early law career, he brought down a corrupt Tennessee governor. I would say that he’s as qualified as many of the other candidates currently running for office.
Thompson will be the “new” Ronald Reagan and win in a landslide. But who will be the “new” libby Mondale?
Who cares?
Go Fred go!