Comments on: How Far Is Iran Away From Making A Nuclear Weapon? http://themoderatevoice.com/11937/how-far-is-iran-away-from-making-a-nuclear-weapon/ An Internet hub for moderates, centrists, and independents, with domestic and international news, analysis, original reporting, and popular features from the left, center, and right Mon, 23 Nov 2009 08:34:53 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Entropy http://themoderatevoice.com/11937/how-far-is-iran-away-from-making-a-nuclear-weapon/comment-page-1/#comment-70251 Entropy Thu, 05 Apr 2007 02:55:06 +0000 http://themoderatevoice.com/places/asia/middle-east/11937/how-far-is-iran-away-from-making-a-nuclear-weapon/#comment-70251 In an article like that, for every "if" add one or two years to the time. If you notice, they could have material for a bomb (not a bomb itself) in two years IF: - "they continue at this pace" - "they get the centrifuges to work" - they "actually enrich uranium on a distinct basis" Those are three really, really big "ifs" The article is also factually wrong. It says: <blockquote> Iran has more than tripled its ability to produce enriched uranium in the last three months, adding some 1,000 centrifuges which are used to separate radioactive particles from the raw material.</blockquote> Since those centrifuges are not operational, their capacity has been <em>potentially</em> tripled. Of course, the article doesn't even mention the problems with Iranian UF6 purity, which they need to address to keep their centrifuges from crashing. The UF6 the Iranians used to test their 164 cascade was actually pure hex purchased from China. Iranian UF6 is pretty sucky actually. Iran has a long way to go. They are making steady progress, but the technology and engineering hurdles are not minor. Unfortunately, the press grossly simplifies everything, making it all sound easier than it actually is. In an article like that, for every “if” add one or two years to the time. If you notice, they could have material for a bomb (not a bomb itself) in two years IF:

- “they continue at this pace”
- “they get the centrifuges to work”
- they “actually enrich uranium on a distinct basis”

Those are three really, really big “ifs”

The article is also factually wrong. It says:

Iran has more than tripled its ability to produce enriched uranium in the last three months, adding some 1,000 centrifuges which are used to separate radioactive particles from the raw material.

Since those centrifuges are not operational, their capacity has been potentially tripled. Of course, the article doesn’t even mention the problems with Iranian UF6 purity, which they need to address to keep their centrifuges from crashing. The UF6 the Iranians used to test their 164 cascade was actually pure hex purchased from China. Iranian UF6 is pretty sucky actually.

Iran has a long way to go. They are making steady progress, but the technology and engineering hurdles are not minor. Unfortunately, the press grossly simplifies everything, making it all sound easier than it actually is.

]]> By: DLS http://themoderatevoice.com/11937/how-far-is-iran-away-from-making-a-nuclear-weapon/comment-page-1/#comment-70190 DLS Wed, 04 Apr 2007 22:42:58 +0000 http://themoderatevoice.com/places/asia/middle-east/11937/how-far-is-iran-away-from-making-a-nuclear-weapon/#comment-70190 How far (and long)? It depends on how much help the Iranians get from elsewhere (which would speed progress). How far (and long)?

It depends on how much help the Iranians get from elsewhere (which would speed progress).

]]> By: Rudi http://themoderatevoice.com/11937/how-far-is-iran-away-from-making-a-nuclear-weapon/comment-page-1/#comment-70110 Rudi Wed, 04 Apr 2007 18:28:51 +0000 http://themoderatevoice.com/places/asia/middle-east/11937/how-far-is-iran-away-from-making-a-nuclear-weapon/#comment-70110 I don't think the yellowcake is from Russia. The Russians are supposed to supply LEU for the commercial reactors. I think the uranium ore is minded in Iran. I don’t think the yellowcake is from Russia. The Russians are supposed to supply LEU for the commercial reactors. I think the uranium ore is minded in Iran.

]]> By: Kevin H http://themoderatevoice.com/11937/how-far-is-iran-away-from-making-a-nuclear-weapon/comment-page-1/#comment-70100 Kevin H Wed, 04 Apr 2007 18:06:43 +0000 http://themoderatevoice.com/places/asia/middle-east/11937/how-far-is-iran-away-from-making-a-nuclear-weapon/#comment-70100 And I thought they just had their major fuel source cut off by Russia, where will they be getting this Uranium to enrich? And I thought they just had their major fuel source cut off by Russia, where will they be getting this Uranium to enrich?

]]> By: Rudi http://themoderatevoice.com/11937/how-far-is-iran-away-from-making-a-nuclear-weapon/comment-page-1/#comment-70051 Rudi Wed, 04 Apr 2007 16:50:34 +0000 http://themoderatevoice.com/places/asia/middle-east/11937/how-far-is-iran-away-from-making-a-nuclear-weapon/#comment-70051 This estimate is a worse case scenario from a biased source. Nowhere is any mention of the engineering and logistics setbacks to the Iranain program. Without direct support from Pakistan, the U235 program is behind even the Iranian estimates. This estimate is a worse case scenario from a biased source. Nowhere is any mention of the engineering and logistics setbacks to the Iranain program. Without direct support from Pakistan, the U235 program is behind even the Iranian estimates.

]]> By: Mikef http://themoderatevoice.com/11937/how-far-is-iran-away-from-making-a-nuclear-weapon/comment-page-1/#comment-70001 Mikef Wed, 04 Apr 2007 15:01:26 +0000 http://themoderatevoice.com/places/asia/middle-east/11937/how-far-is-iran-away-from-making-a-nuclear-weapon/#comment-70001 No, I don't believe two. I remember Saddam was 45 minutes from nuking London a few years ago. We need to start demanding a bit more evidence before falling for the same line on Iran. No, I don’t believe two.

I remember Saddam was 45 minutes from nuking London a few years ago.

We need to start demanding a bit more evidence before falling for the same line on Iran.

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