Did I ever claim we were making progress against the insurgency? If you search my name in the comments on this site you’ll see I’ve talked about Afghanistan before and the fact is we are NOT making progress, but it’s not because the Taliban are popular and “pious” religious warriors, or because we’re denuding the country of women, children and old men through our supposedly indiscriminate carpet bombing campaigns.

The biggest obstacle is the Pakistan safe-haven. It’s much, much more than a place to casually spent the winter months. It serves as a recruiting, training, supply and logistics hub that we cannot interdict. Take a quick look at the history of insurgency – it should not surprise anyone that in the last century no insurgency that has a safe-haven has lost. The only exception being Korea which was fought to a draw after Chinese intervention. Vietnam, El Salvador, Afghanistan for the Soviets, Nicaragua are all examples where the insurgent had a safe-haven across a political boundary that couldn’t be interdicted and destroyed.

The safe haven is the main reason the insurgency survives in Afghanistan and we won’t defeat it until that safe-haven is removed. The best we can hope for is to slowly build Afghani forces so that they can defend themselves from the cross-border attacks. That will take at least a decade however. There is no doubt that we are in Afghanistan for the long haul. We are making progress in fits and starts, but that progress is also being pushed back. Insurgency is a dirty, tough business that takes a lot of time, intelligence and effort. There’s a reason most insurgencies last a decade or more.

This will be a critical year in Afghanistan. The Taliban and AQ are really itching for a fight. They’ve been building up for bigger operations over the last couple of years and they believe they can take some parts of the country back. They would not be any position of strength were it not for the safe haven.

Where are the results? How is it possible we, the UNITED STATES have been unable to maintain enough order there to crush the Taliban permanently? So they go to Pakistan in the winter, why do we not crush them in the spring when they return? What needs to change so this doesn’t drag on for another 4 years? You make it sound as if everything is going according to some master plan and the author is totally ignorant of reality, when it is you who are passively denying the reality that we are not making any progress there.

“In riposte, NATO and American bombs are destroying entire villages, including precious infrastructure and causing significant “collateral damageâ€? to children, women and elderly men.”

First of all, we haven’t dropped bombs on villages to any serious degree since 2002. In fact, the opposite is true – it’s the Taliban that is now bombing in the cities and villages – first with car and motorcycle bombs and now with suicide bombs. Their aim is to kill any prominent leader who isn’t Taliban as well as any police or other forces of authority. They don’t seem to mind much when their acts kill the very women, children and the elderly that Brij opines about. The fact is that the vast majority of combat the US and NATO forces pour onto the Taliban happen in largely unpopulated areas in the mountains where the Taliban hide, or along the border with Afghanistan. It’s very very rare for us to bomb villages. We’ve never deployed tanks or heavy artillery or rockets to Afghanistan. The vast majority of ground forces are light infantry. I wonder if Brij even knows what light infantry are.

There are two reasons the Taliban still have a foothold in Afghanistan. First, and most important, they have safe-havens in Pakistan where we cannot attack them. Every winter they go over the border to train and requip to fight in the spring. Secondly, their only tool for control is fear. With very few exceptions the Taliban have little popular support but they are still able to instill fear into the populace and they force villages to shelter and protect them. There’s a reason the Taliban use “night letters” extensively and the US and NATO do not. The only area the Taliban has any support is in the south in the conservative Pashtun areas. But all Pashtuns are not Taliban as Karzai demonstrates.

In short the author understands little of the actual fighting in Afghanistan or our counter-insurgency strategy. He’s probably completely unaware that our “intensely violent forays” by “heavily protected ground troops” consist of light infantry and special forces. And the special forces spend most of their time doing stuff like veterinary services for livestock along with basic medical and dental care for villagers with no other access to such services. I wonder how often the Taliban provides similar benefits when they’re not busy in Pakistan learning how to make det cord, or printing night letters to instill fear? And what is an “intensely violent foray” anyway? How is it different from a mere “violent foray?” And what are “heavily protected ground troops?” Troops that have weapons? Body armor? Ride around in Toyota trucks or humvees, or, even more likely, LPC’s? LPC= Leather Personnel Carrier = boots.

No, Brij doesn’t seem to know anything about actual combat operations in Afghanistan, but the comparison to the Swiss is interesting. I can certainly see parallels, but Afghanistan has a LONG way to go before it’s remotely able to aspire to what the Swiss have achieved.

And I very strongly disagree that a stalemate is a win. A win is when there are no longer roving bands of armed men clashing daily and killing bystanders. Once that is the case a country, or tribe or people, can begin getting on with their lives and living in peace. Anything else is not living.

Have a nice day.

It is not that they are rejoicing. But what can you do with someone with suicidal tendency. And many fear that backing the USA would be like committing suicide…

Do you think Afghanistan should be partitioned along ethnic lines, the way many now think Iraq should be partitioned?

Nearly 40 years ago I was told that the United States of America is the most fascinating nation populated by the most naive people. I did not believe this because I had inherent faith in the vitality of a nation described as a melting pot of the world.

I had great expectations….

Alas…in the march of recent history I may have to change my opinion!!!

We will never defeat terrorism. We will never Win hearts and minds. It is not in our job description to win hearts and minds. It is in our job description to stiffle terrorism and you do that by cutting off funding. By making it extremely difficult for the terrorists to operate.

People continually look at the next truck bomb that goes off in Afghanistan as a “See were losing” scenario. We would be losing if their were dozens of truck bombs going off daily. There is not they are scattered and well timed because they do not have the resources to do otherwise.

A stalemate means that our efforts are actually working. Victory is measured in different ways. The war on crime in the USA has been a victory. Not because we have defeated crime. Crime remains but it is under control and manageable.

Putting Terrorism under control and manageable while continuing to deprive them of the funding and resources they need to continue is a successful campagin. We started our campaign with this concept of outright victory. In America their is no winner till someone clearly wins. We even have overtime to ensure a winner. There is no overtime in the war on terror. Victory is measured in different ways. We are winning, just not in the way we are used to measuring a “win”.

A stalemate in Afghanistan simply means that what we are attempting to do is working. Do not let anyone tell you otherwise.