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	<title>Comments on: Playing the Iranian Game</title>
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		<title>By: Dave UK</title>
		<link>http://themoderatevoice.com/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/comment-page-1/#comment-69529</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave UK</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Apr 2007 14:12:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://themoderatevoice.com/places/asia/middle-east/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/#comment-69529</guid>
		<description>&lt;strong&gt;Dave Schuler, &lt;/strong&gt;

here is the link you requested, I presume it was the Poll results you wanted. To Date (2 April 07) 31000 votes - 67% voted in favour that Britain should go in and take its sailors back, by force if necessary.

http://news.uk.msn.com/navy_sailors_seized_in_the_gulf.aspx?voteshowresults=1&amp;pollcontent=-1140266873&amp;jsdisabled=true</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Dave Schuler, </strong></p>
<p>here is the link you requested, I presume it was the Poll results you wanted. To Date (2 April 07) 31000 votes &#8211; 67% voted in favour that Britain should go in and take its sailors back, by force if necessary.</p>
<p><a href="http://news.uk.msn.com/navy_sailors_seized_in_the_gulf.aspx?voteshowresults=1&#038;pollcontent=-1140266873&#038;jsdisabled=true" rel="nofollow">http://news.uk.msn.com/navy_sailors_seized_in_the_gulf.aspx?voteshowresults=1&#038;pollcontent=-1140266873&#038;jsdisabled=true</a></p>
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		<title>By: Rudi</title>
		<link>http://themoderatevoice.com/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/comment-page-1/#comment-68128</link>
		<dc:creator>Rudi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Mar 2007 03:50:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://themoderatevoice.com/places/asia/middle-east/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/#comment-68128</guid>
		<description>He was wrong on Iraq, he will be wrong on Iran. He has loved every war, even Yugoslavia when the Right attacked Clinton as CinC.It was a snark...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>He was wrong on Iraq, he will be wrong on Iran. He has loved every war, even Yugoslavia when the Right attacked Clinton as CinC.It was a snark&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Josh</title>
		<link>http://themoderatevoice.com/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/comment-page-1/#comment-68119</link>
		<dc:creator>Josh</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Mar 2007 03:19:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://themoderatevoice.com/places/asia/middle-east/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/#comment-68119</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t know what Bill Kristol has to do with any of this, but nonetheless, I am sure he knows the difference between Arabs and Persians.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t know what Bill Kristol has to do with any of this, but nonetheless, I am sure he knows the difference between Arabs and Persians.</p>
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		<title>By: Rudi</title>
		<link>http://themoderatevoice.com/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/comment-page-1/#comment-68114</link>
		<dc:creator>Rudi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Mar 2007 03:04:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://themoderatevoice.com/places/asia/middle-east/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/#comment-68114</guid>
		<description>I can hear the war chant from Billy Kristol right now. Kill all those filthy Iranian Ayrabs...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I can hear the war chant from Billy Kristol right now. Kill all those filthy Iranian Ayrabs&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Dave Schuler</title>
		<link>http://themoderatevoice.com/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/comment-page-1/#comment-68038</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave Schuler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Mar 2007 20:03:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://themoderatevoice.com/places/asia/middle-east/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/#comment-68038</guid>
		<description>Do you have a link for that, Dave UK?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Do you have a link for that, Dave UK?</p>
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		<title>By: Dave Schuler</title>
		<link>http://themoderatevoice.com/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/comment-page-1/#comment-68021</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave Schuler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Mar 2007 18:46:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://themoderatevoice.com/places/asia/middle-east/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/#comment-68021</guid>
		<description>Characterizing the Mossadegh regime as democratically elected is, at best, an exaggeration.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Characterizing the Mossadegh regime as democratically elected is, at best, an exaggeration.</p>
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		<title>By: Dave UK</title>
		<link>http://themoderatevoice.com/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/comment-page-1/#comment-68012</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave UK</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Mar 2007 17:04:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://themoderatevoice.com/places/asia/middle-east/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/#comment-68012</guid>
		<description>I think the Iranians have played the wrong cards in taking 15 British soldiers captive. Its one thing for the British people to think that their troops should be pulled out of iraq, but its another when any country acts as an aggressor towards our troops. 

The Iranians might be supprised that polls carried out show that 70% of the British public would support military action against Iran if diplomatic efforts fail!!

Do not forget Thatcher and the Falklands, this made her a hero and Mr Blair although he likes his nicey nicey image would love to be remembered as a hero. And although the UK military isn&#039;t a massive force, they have a lot of friends and the US owes the UK big style. Not that the US would need much of an excuse to bomb some Iranian guard, I feel.

Lets just hope it ends peacfully, and that a more moderate government comes to iraq.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think the Iranians have played the wrong cards in taking 15 British soldiers captive. Its one thing for the British people to think that their troops should be pulled out of iraq, but its another when any country acts as an aggressor towards our troops. </p>
<p>The Iranians might be supprised that polls carried out show that 70% of the British public would support military action against Iran if diplomatic efforts fail!!</p>
<p>Do not forget Thatcher and the Falklands, this made her a hero and Mr Blair although he likes his nicey nicey image would love to be remembered as a hero. And although the UK military isn&#8217;t a massive force, they have a lot of friends and the US owes the UK big style. Not that the US would need much of an excuse to bomb some Iranian guard, I feel.</p>
<p>Lets just hope it ends peacfully, and that a more moderate government comes to iraq.</p>
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		<title>By: david</title>
		<link>http://themoderatevoice.com/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/comment-page-1/#comment-68009</link>
		<dc:creator>david</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Mar 2007 16:35:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://themoderatevoice.com/places/asia/middle-east/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/#comment-68009</guid>
		<description>You wrote: &quot;In 1979, the American hostages werenâ€™t in Iran (or the region) as aggressors; they were embassy staff and diplomats. [...]&quot;

That&#039;s so incredibly naive, I wouldn&#039;t know where to begin!

America &amp; America&#039;s puppet regime in Iran brutalized that country... All the way back to when the USA ousted the democratically-elected Mossadegh in the 1950s.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You wrote: &#8220;In 1979, the American hostages werenâ€™t in Iran (or the region) as aggressors; they were embassy staff and diplomats. [...]&#8221;</p>
<p>That&#8217;s so incredibly naive, I wouldn&#8217;t know where to begin!</p>
<p>America &amp; America&#8217;s puppet regime in Iran brutalized that country&#8230; All the way back to when the USA ousted the democratically-elected Mossadegh in the 1950s.</p>
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		<title>By: daveinboca</title>
		<link>http://themoderatevoice.com/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/comment-page-1/#comment-68004</link>
		<dc:creator>daveinboca</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Mar 2007 16:19:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://themoderatevoice.com/places/asia/middle-east/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/#comment-68004</guid>
		<description>Iran is doing this desperate move primarily for internal political considerations.  The five Iranian &quot;diplomats&quot; were spies, not soldiers.  Ahmedinejad is very unpopular inside his country, a fact US media tend to overlook.  Rafsanjani is likely to beat him in a presidential race next year.  Pres. A is a Rev Guard vet and they were the Iranian &quot;navy&quot; types who took the ship.

The little madman hopes to become a martyr.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Iran is doing this desperate move primarily for internal political considerations.  The five Iranian &#8220;diplomats&#8221; were spies, not soldiers.  Ahmedinejad is very unpopular inside his country, a fact US media tend to overlook.  Rafsanjani is likely to beat him in a presidential race next year.  Pres. A is a Rev Guard vet and they were the Iranian &#8220;navy&#8221; types who took the ship.</p>
<p>The little madman hopes to become a martyr.</p>
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		<title>By: grognard</title>
		<link>http://themoderatevoice.com/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/comment-page-1/#comment-67997</link>
		<dc:creator>grognard</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Mar 2007 15:45:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://themoderatevoice.com/places/asia/middle-east/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/#comment-67997</guid>
		<description>What I donâ€™t understand about this is why Iran would want to face the possibility of a shut down of gasoline supplies. A shutdown of gasoline going to the country either as a result of tankers not wanting to enter an area of potential conflict, or as a result of a blockade, would send the Iranian economy into a tailspin. Is this a political calculation that the Iranians would rally around the Mullahs over this crisis?  Does the Iranian government think that Shiites in Iraq will join them over a confrontation with the US? This seems to me to be a stretch, or perhaps a serious miscalculation. I donâ€™t rule out that this might be an operation of some rouge elements that wanted to provoke a confrontation with the US, a situation the Iranian government now has to deal with without loosing face.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What I donâ€™t understand about this is why Iran would want to face the possibility of a shut down of gasoline supplies. A shutdown of gasoline going to the country either as a result of tankers not wanting to enter an area of potential conflict, or as a result of a blockade, would send the Iranian economy into a tailspin. Is this a political calculation that the Iranians would rally around the Mullahs over this crisis?  Does the Iranian government think that Shiites in Iraq will join them over a confrontation with the US? This seems to me to be a stretch, or perhaps a serious miscalculation. I donâ€™t rule out that this might be an operation of some rouge elements that wanted to provoke a confrontation with the US, a situation the Iranian government now has to deal with without loosing face.</p>
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		<title>By: Polimom Says &#187; Playing the Iranian game</title>
		<link>http://themoderatevoice.com/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/comment-page-1/#comment-67978</link>
		<dc:creator>Polimom Says &#187; Playing the Iranian game</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Mar 2007 14:47:55 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>[...] (Cross-posted at The Moderate Voice) [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] (Cross-posted at The Moderate Voice) [...]</p>
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		<title>By: jdledell</title>
		<link>http://themoderatevoice.com/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/comment-page-1/#comment-67976</link>
		<dc:creator>jdledell</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Mar 2007 14:47:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://themoderatevoice.com/places/asia/middle-east/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/#comment-67976</guid>
		<description>This is a very simple game Iran is playing. First, they want to exchange the British sholdiers for the 5 Iranians captured by the Americans 2 months ago at the semi-consulate in Irbil. Next, they want to send a signal to the Americans that two can play the game of captuiring the other&#039;s nationals. Let the negotiations on hostage exchange now begin.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is a very simple game Iran is playing. First, they want to exchange the British sholdiers for the 5 Iranians captured by the Americans 2 months ago at the semi-consulate in Irbil. Next, they want to send a signal to the Americans that two can play the game of captuiring the other&#8217;s nationals. Let the negotiations on hostage exchange now begin.</p>
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		<title>By: The Master</title>
		<link>http://themoderatevoice.com/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/comment-page-1/#comment-67971</link>
		<dc:creator>The Master</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Mar 2007 14:35:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://themoderatevoice.com/places/asia/middle-east/11778/playing-the-iranian-game/#comment-67971</guid>
		<description>Polimom,

You could well be right about the Iranians&#039; motivations.  They have been playing a very careful game for years, but this move has the look of desperation about it.  I suspect the Iranians have experienced a few shocks that they hadn&#039;t planned on that have upset their careful strategy.

1)  The UN Security Council has voted sanctions on them (now two sets of sanctions) and they are hurting the Iranian economy, as well as withdrawing international support that is needed for their strategy to play out.  They had no doubt counted on Russian or Chinese intervention to block sanctions.  They did not get it.

2)  The Russians (Putin himself!) pulled their support for the Bushrer reactor project.  Without that support Bushrer will never come on line.  Putin has apparently decided that Russia does not need a nuclear Iran only 3,000 miles south of Moscow, possibly acting as a magnet for Israeli warheads.

3)  The Surge.  Regardless of whether the Surge achieves all of the objectives the Bush Administration has set for it, it has clearly already upset the calculations of the various factions in Iraq, as well as in Iran.  Bush has done something neither Iran nor the Iraqi Shiites expected that he would--or could do.  The Surge is clearly changing the dynamics on the ground in Iraq.  The Iranians have to be wondering what else they have gotten wrong in their assessment of the US.

Thing have not been going the Iranian&#039;s way in 2007.  They may be looking at the ruin of many years of planning and political-diplomatic effort.  Might be they are trying their own version of &quot;double down and win.&quot;

As you say, a very dangerous game.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Polimom,</p>
<p>You could well be right about the Iranians&#8217; motivations.  They have been playing a very careful game for years, but this move has the look of desperation about it.  I suspect the Iranians have experienced a few shocks that they hadn&#8217;t planned on that have upset their careful strategy.</p>
<p>1)  The UN Security Council has voted sanctions on them (now two sets of sanctions) and they are hurting the Iranian economy, as well as withdrawing international support that is needed for their strategy to play out.  They had no doubt counted on Russian or Chinese intervention to block sanctions.  They did not get it.</p>
<p>2)  The Russians (Putin himself!) pulled their support for the Bushrer reactor project.  Without that support Bushrer will never come on line.  Putin has apparently decided that Russia does not need a nuclear Iran only 3,000 miles south of Moscow, possibly acting as a magnet for Israeli warheads.</p>
<p>3)  The Surge.  Regardless of whether the Surge achieves all of the objectives the Bush Administration has set for it, it has clearly already upset the calculations of the various factions in Iraq, as well as in Iran.  Bush has done something neither Iran nor the Iraqi Shiites expected that he would&#8211;or could do.  The Surge is clearly changing the dynamics on the ground in Iraq.  The Iranians have to be wondering what else they have gotten wrong in their assessment of the US.</p>
<p>Thing have not been going the Iranian&#8217;s way in 2007.  They may be looking at the ruin of many years of planning and political-diplomatic effort.  Might be they are trying their own version of &#8220;double down and win.&#8221;</p>
<p>As you say, a very dangerous game.</p>
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