Hezbollah has more influence than they’ve had before, but they’ve also really pissed off the Sunnis and Christians in Lebanon. No way do they have enough power to take over that country and if you read Michael Totten’s blog he saw firsthand how all the destruction in the Hezbollah south hasn’t been worked on at all while in the other areas it’s repaired and even expanding.

Iran has strengthened, not weakened, Hizballah in Lebanon, and is ready to do much more mischief in southern Iraq; Hizballah already is there. The question at this time is which is better established and in actual control, ready to go — Hizballah or Pasdaran.

He will get more time to develop his own nukes while he waits and hopes for more concessions from the West.

I’m surprised he hasn’t demanded Britain publicly apologize for trespassing and spying in Iranian waters.

Personally it seems like all the groups are seeing the amount of influence and power dropping and being replaced by anarchy. At this point I can’t think of one major group that isn’t (hasn’t recently) acted out of desperation instead of calculation. I fear that as they feel more and more impotent the situation will get more and more dangerous and could very easily lead to WWI redux where nothing can possibly be accomplished except millions of meaningless deaths.

Cross posted on Polimom’s entry above.

Why is that do you suppose? Because he understands the antiwar mentality. He wants the British or the Americans to attack him. If he does, he will pull a hezzbollah, stage photos and turn the British/Americans into the most evil warmongering war criminals ever. If we dont attack him then he has the bargaining chip that he used so effectively in 1979.

Either way the antiwar is his allies.

Also: you have to realize that I did not call for using force immediately. I’m all for diplomacy, increasing the pressure first. Naval blockade if Iran refuses to give in, and.. yes.. if Iran truly doesn’t give in – Britain should be willing to use force and the West as a whole should back Britain up.

He understands how helpless the Americans have become in the face of their antiwar. He understands how helpless Tony Blair is in the face of his antiwar crowd. He simply will wait this out and wait for the next round of negotiations. He will just wait for them to put on the table more concessions because the antiwar has convinced him that waiting long enough and they will give him the keys to the white house and the codes to the nukes. The antiwar has him convinced they will give him anything he wants.

He only has to wait patiently for it to happen.

I’m very uneasy with the speed with which calls for action came after the event. Revenge is best served on a cold plate, (or words to that effect, before I garbled them).

In a world where a sneeze can trigger life altering results, the last thing anyone should do is give in to an emotional,
‘we’ll show them’ reaction. I’d hoped we had at least learned that much.

In the end, those longing for action may get their wish. But I hope a very long and careful look is taken before the leap.