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Zero Tolerance
If there is one thing Tony Blair cannot do, it is to give in to Iran. Iran kidnapped 15 British who were, at the moment of their ‘capture’ in Iraqi waters. To give in to Iran now, will give the Mullahs the impression that the West will eventually cave in regarding their nuclear program and sponsoring of terrorism, as well.
Today, Pajamas Media published a good article by Meir Javedanfar. Meir argues that if the Brits accept this, if the Brits don’t let Iran know that it has to release the British servicemen ASAP, or face the consequences of its act of aggression, and instead give in to Iran’s demands, “US soldiers are likely to be next in line for capture by Iran.”
Iran is, according to Meir, trying to influence public opinion in Britain.
By capturing the servicemen, Tehran is hoping that the British people, particularly the majority who are already against the war in Iraq will openly blame Blair for the crisis, by saying that it is his fault for endangering the lives of troops by sending them into a conflict zone.
Naval blockade. If Iran refuses to give in, airstrikes.
Tony Blair seems to understand that as well.
Also, Iran said that the British were in Iranian waters at the moment of their ‘capture’. The British ministry of defense says they were in Iraqi waters and, what’s more, the British can prove it:
Fifteen Royal Navy personnel seized by Iran last Friday were 1.7 nautical miles within Iraqi territorial waters, the Ministry of Defence said today.
After five days of fruitless diplomacy, the Government decided to go public with its case against what it sees as an illegal seizure, giving the exact coordinates of two patrol boats operating from the HMS Cornwall in the northern Gulf, backed up by nautical charts. Tehran says the two boats were in Iranian waters.
At a press conference at MoD headquarters, Vice-Admiral Charles Style also charged that the Iranian Government had changed its story between Saturday and Monday after initially giving coordinates that showed the boats – engaged in entirely routine shipping patrols – were inside Iraqi waters.
“It is hard to understand a legitimate reason for this change of coordinates,” Vice-Admiral Style. “In any case, we vigorously contest both coordinates given by the Iranians.
Good, let that be the end of that discussion. Now it’s time to agree that Blair should adopt a zero tolerance policy.
Cross posted at my own blog
13 Responses to “Zero Tolerance”
It may very well be that, as you say on your blog, action will need to be taken.
I’m glad to see, though, that Blair is exhibiting the British sang froid while confronting this challenge. He is exploring all avenues of diplomacy in order to avert more drastic action, if possible.
I’m very uneasy with the speed with which calls for action came after the event. Revenge is best served on a cold plate, (or words to that effect, before I garbled them).
In a world where a sneeze can trigger life altering results, the last thing anyone should do is give in to an emotional,
‘we’ll show them’ reaction. I’d hoped we had at least learned that much.
In the end, those longing for action may get their wish. But I hope a very long and careful look is taken before the leap.
The president of Iran is also the same person who seized the American Embassy and held those people prisoner for 444 days while the world watched amused as Jimmy Carters presidency crumbled around him.
He understands how helpless the Americans have become in the face of their antiwar. He understands how helpless Tony Blair is in the face of his antiwar crowd. He simply will wait this out and wait for the next round of negotiations. He will just wait for them to put on the table more concessions because the antiwar has convinced him that waiting long enough and they will give him the keys to the white house and the codes to the nukes. The antiwar has him convinced they will give him anything he wants.
He only has to wait patiently for it to happen.
Then I say thank God for the antiwar crowd! We are already involved in two wars that we are not winning, and are no closer to wiping out al queda than we were on 9/12. Britain can take the saner step of financial sanctions- freezing Iranian assets abroad, or diplomatic ones- but war with Iran would be even more foolish and short-sighted than war with Iraq was. Decisions should never be made out of anger or revenge, and no action should be taken without a sober, hard look at the unintended consequences. We are on a very frightening path, and lack the resources to start yet another war.
Doma: “revenge is a meal best served cold” if I am not mistaken.
Also: you have to realize that I did not call for using force immediately. I’m all for diplomacy, increasing the pressure first. Naval blockade if Iran refuses to give in, and.. yes.. if Iran truly doesn’t give in – Britain should be willing to use force and the West as a whole should back Britain up.
Michael-
Thanks for the correct quote.
On some days, I need an editor before I say ‘good morning’.
[...] Posted By: Sister Toldjah in: International, Iran, Middle East, United Kingdom | EMail This Post | Print This Post | Trackback URI for this post:http://sistertoldjah.com/archives/2007/03/28/british-hostages-update/trackback/ » [...]
Don’t you see what the president of Iran is doing. The UN said we are going to punish Iran for nukes and the next day Hezzbollah starts a war by kidnapping Israelis. The UN voted on sanctions against Iran and what happens? Iran takes British sailors hostage.
Why is that do you suppose? Because he understands the antiwar mentality. He wants the British or the Americans to attack him. If he does, he will pull a hezzbollah, stage photos and turn the British/Americans into the most evil warmongering war criminals ever. If we dont attack him then he has the bargaining chip that he used so effectively in 1979.
Either way the antiwar is his allies.
This is a very simple game Iran is playing. First, they want to exchange the British sholdiers for the 5 Iranians captured by the Americans 2 months ago at the semi-consulate in Irbil. Next, they want to send a signal to the Americans that two can play the game of captuiring the other’s nationals. Let the negotiations on hostage exchange now begin.
Cross posted on Polimom’s entry above.
Iran flexes its malovelent muscle while exploiting leftist defects within the West that aid Iran. Wonderful.
The big problem is that all powers in the middle east are starting to equalize because risk is going way up. Whether it’s Israel and Hamas/Hezbollah or Iran or various groups within Iraq/Lebanon or the US and everybody no one has enough power to get what they want without sacrificing so much it isn’t worth it. On the other thread posted by Polimom someone pointed out tons of stuff suddenly going against Iran.
Personally it seems like all the groups are seeing the amount of influence and power dropping and being replaced by anarchy. At this point I can’t think of one major group that isn’t (hasn’t recently) acted out of desperation instead of calculation. I fear that as they feel more and more impotent the situation will get more and more dangerous and could very easily lead to WWI redux where nothing can possibly be accomplished except millions of meaningless deaths.
> [Ahmedinnerjacket] will just wait for them
> to put on the table more concessions because
> the antiwar has convinced him that waiting
> long enough and they will give him the keys
> to the white house and the codes to the nukes.
He will get more time to develop his own nukes while he waits and hopes for more concessions from the West.
I’m surprised he hasn’t demanded Britain publicly apologize for trespassing and spying in Iranian waters.
> Personally it seems like all the groups are
> seeing the amount of influence and power
> dropping and being replaced by anarchy.
Iran has strengthened, not weakened, Hizballah in Lebanon, and is ready to do much more mischief in southern Iraq; Hizballah already is there. The question at this time is which is better established and in actual control, ready to go — Hizballah or Pasdaran.
Iran has strength[ened] all right. Past tense. I don’t think their current course sustainable as Sunni insurgents are far more resilient than expected, the Kurds are gaining in strength very quickly and they are quickly running out of energy and money. Inflation is skyrocketing and the people are angry because basic foodstuffs are through the roof.
Hezbollah has more influence than they’ve had before, but they’ve also really pissed off the Sunnis and Christians in Lebanon. No way do they have enough power to take over that country and if you read Michael Totten’s blog he saw firsthand how all the destruction in the Hezbollah south hasn’t been worked on at all while in the other areas it’s repaired and even expanding.