Iraq to me seems like another front in the same basic geopolitical battle, and I would actually be quite surprised if either of these fronts had significant changes within the next two years.

As to specifics, I think there will still be a central Baghdad government with most of the same ministers it has now which will receive US support. On the other hand there will probably be a number of independent para-military groups which are more or less theocratic vieing for control of the country.

do you think either of those things have a good chance of not being true?

As to how much of the country is controlled by each faction, I think that is very much up in the air, but that seems to simply change the small issues, (or the location and number of the moles to carry on the whack-a-mole metaphor), rather than the overarching international interests at play.

Like… negotiations with Iran (and to a lesser degree, Syria), and the pipeline through the Kurdish territories (which will invest Turkey).

There’s a great deal going on in the background, any and all of which can have impact.

Alternatively, the surge could fail spectacularly — in which case the country will go ahead and dissolve into chaos later this summer.

Either way, though… no, I don’t see things staying the same for such an extended period of time.

HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

Polimom, this might not be a “prediction” so much as Hillary’s “Sister Soljah” moment.

Notice the emphasis on the political risk Hillary is taking. She will piss off many on her party’s Left…but – a la Lieberman – have the possibility of picking up centrists and even GOPers who are pro-defense but disturbed by the social conservatives.

Considering that the Moveon.org and the DUummies loathe her as it is, not so much of a loss really. But possibly a symbolic moment for defining herself as independent…(forgetting her recent pandering with her southern accent)…unlike McCain who is caving to social conservatives.

A lot of the debate about the war, and the questions candidates are asked, depend on predictions for the future. If things change, they are open to accusations of flip-flopping. If they don’t, then they are either war mongers or terrorist sympathizers.

The hole we are in is not only deep but it’s actually a tunnel leading to new offshoots every day.

It will take a very nuanced approach to get us out, and the candidate who knows absolutely what he would do tomorrew is not up to the job, IMO.