Thoughts on Hagel
I’m afraid that I missed this column by E.J. Dionne Jr. earlier this week, but better late than never, as they say. It’s a great, highly interesting column about Hagel (and the other Republican candidates).
A thing worth mentioning, something that everyone should realize is that although Hagel seems to be a ‘maverick’ regarding his view on the war in Iraq, he isn’t much of a maverick regarding his other voting behavior. The National Journal ratings show that Hagel is more conservative than John McCain and Sam Brownback.
In other words, Hagel is the most conservative of (potential, as Dionne points out, he has ‘hinted’ that he might run) contenders. The only thing that makes him seem less conservative than he is, is his opposition to the war in Iraq. Now, if the war would suddenly become a great success Hagel will be doomed, but if it doesn’t… well, if it doesn’t, Hagel might have a shot.
To whom will disillusioned conservatives turn? McCain? Nah. Giuliani? For now, yeah, but what once people find out about his not-so socially conservative views, or his family problems, argues and wonders Dionne.
Dionne’s conclusion, though: “But disillusionment is not the same as rebellion. Republicans, usually not a band of rebels, still pray that Bush can succeed in Iraq. Thus Hagel waits, hyping a non-announcement to say he’s around if the world and the party move his way. What he really wants is to overturn the foreign policy of Bush 43 and restore the old-fashioned Republican approach of Bush 41. He may have to split his party and run as an independent to do it.”
It seems to me that Hagel has a lot of potential: his opposition to the war in Iraq – and the accompanying ‘maverick’ image – will make him acceptable to a lot of Independents / independent-minded voters, while, at the same time, his conservative voting record on other issues might him (somewhat) acceptable to (quite some) conservatives.
On the other hand, conservatives are indeed quite a loyal bunch. This means that they’re not willing to abandon a president during wartime and that they might consider speaking out against the war, or war policy, hurts the war effort, etc. This might cause many conservatives not to support Hagel.
Independent run? Will Hagel be able to run successfully as an Independent? Won’t Bloomberg have a better shot at that?
19 Responses to “Thoughts on Hagel”
Hagel, Shmagel.
The warmongering republican base vehemently rejects his stance on the Iraq war. So, he doesn’t have a chance in the primary.
On the contrary: Those who are voting based upon the war issue will be voting in the Democratic primary. Those looking for a “maverick” will be supporting McCain. Some conservatives will support him, though I suspect more will go with Brownback, who has made a name for himself on social issues. When you slice things up that way, it only leaves crumbs for Hagel.
Hmm Nick, interesting comment: I personally think that Romney will rise in the polls as well…
McClown was the MSM maverick candidate in 2000, his iconoclast quotient is now zero. If Iraq doesn’t improve alot, look for Hagel to gain some traction. McClown now gets the brownnoser vote.
McCain was dubbed the “maverick” because of his independent streak and willingness to stand up for what he believed. In courting the establishment of the GOP, he has become in many voters eyes the establishment candidate- who backs many of Bush’s policies and who backs our involvement in Iraq. Since Bush’s support comes almost entirely from his own party, McCain could do well in primaries, but bomb the general.
Hagel has a better chance in the general, because he has bucked Bush on the war (though he voted for it at least he has not been a rubber stamp) but will likely not survive the primaries. Newt has character problems, as does Giuli-that leaves Romney- my pick for the nomination.
Rudi the Iconclastic Liberal may be on to something…though his comment does sound as though he was not happy with his McCoffee and McMuffin this morning
I had assumed institutional forces would boost McCain. But his pandering recently resulted in the same negatives as Hillary’s bizarre fake southern drawl.
Guiliani may be a transvestite, gun-banning, abortion-happy, gay loving philanderer…but unlike Romney (here I disagree with Kritter) he has IT.
I recall a famous speech of Margaret Thatcher to her Conservative party in 80 or thereabouts, when all of the knives were out for her in the party, and the media were gleefully predicting her downfall.
“You turn if you want to. The lady’s not for turning.”
It was an odd phrase, and sneered at by liberals and Labour. But it resonated. People knew who she was, and where she wanted to go. Thatcher had IT.
A lot of conservatives feel they know GUiliani…at his core…regardless of whether he is wearing Chanel or Galliano that day.
Doing a little Googling and fgound some interesting Hagel articles and posts. While his voting record is conservative, his ambitions and interest are very far from Nebraska and farms. He may be play out for SecofState in the next cabinet, Democrat or Republican. MvdG – here is a short list on Hagel, seems his anti-war realist stance is Scowcroft in thought and predates the Iraq invasion.
http://www.nationalreview.com/12aug02/miller081202.asp
http://www.cmep.org/Alerts/2003May23.htm
http://www.forward.com/blogs/campaign-confidential/chuck-hagel-on-iran/
http://www.inboxrobot.com/news/cfr
http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0824-20.htm
Is MvdG off the McClown bus and onto the Hagel train?
[...] Read my entire post at The Moderate Voice. [...]
lol Rudi: I know – Hagel’s views on foreign policy are like those of Powell, etc.
And I’m sympathetic towards Hagel Rudi but… I wonder about some views, as you know I’m socially not that conservative.
Marlow- If conservatives back a character-challenged candidate like Giuli, who’s wife found out by watching TV that he was divorcing her, does that mean they were wrong for dogging Clinton for eight years on his character issues? They are from different parties but have similar characters.
Well Hagel isn’t out pandering to the Dobson crowd on social issues. His FP credentials make Rudy look like a Albright/Condo bag carrier.
Well Hagel isn’t out pandering to the Dobson crowd on social issues.
I know and that and his anti-war stance make him an attractive alternative, in an otherwise lackluster Republican field. If you just look at the man himself, and not whether he meets the litmus tests of the party, he comes off very well. He reminds me a little of Jim Webb- they are both tough, Vietnam vets who are straight talkers.
> otherwise lackluster Republican field
Sadly, that’s not only true but too typical of the GOP. Some may beg Jeb Bush to run before this coming election occurs.
It’s just like the Dimmies other than the two leaders. With many of these GOP guys, they may be hoping for a VP spot if they aren’t the front-runner after the February primaries. (With the Dims, it’s obvious who the winners are and I suspect at least some other Dims to be cynically posturing as Presidential contenders when their goal has been the Vice Presidency all along. With the GOP, there is no obvious winner or leader.)
How exactly has Hagel been against the war in Iraq again?
Oh yeah, he talks a good show.
But when it comes to actually voting on the senate floor?
Not so much.
I think the Republican party still excells at party discipline, and may have threatened to withdraw support for re-election or other perks. Most of the votes have fallen along party lines.
I’m with Davebo.
Hagel has been talking sense on the Iraq issue since the start. He even demanded assurances from Bush in 2002 that opening up a new front in Iraq wouldn’t distract us from the fight in Afghanistan.
But in the end, he always voted in lockstep with his party.
George Bush is all for dissent. Just as long as you sign the check in the end.
Mikef – that might be because of organizations like the Victory Caucus, that pledge to take out any Republican that votes against the president’s policies. Its the way Washington works.
I still wonder about Hagel’s nonannouncement last week. It seems totally out of character. BTW, at least he is talking sense, and not remaining silent like the rest of those boobs up on Capitol Hill.