Is US Ready To Dump Pakistan’s Musharraf?

The Times of India today asked this question. “The writing seems to be on the wall for Pakistan’s military ruler Pervez Musharraf. Uncle Sam, the General’s Patron-in-Chief, is showing signs of cashiering his favoured stooge and preparing grounds for his succession.”

While The New York Times says: “For decades, the military has been the most dominant institution in Pakistan. If Mr. Musharraf were to fall to an assassin’s bullet, American diplomatic and intelligence officials say, it is unlikely that there would be mass uprisings in Lahore and Karachi, or that a religious leader in the Taliban mold would rise to power.

“ ‘I am not particularly worried about an extremist government coming to power and getting hold of nuclear weapons,’ said Robert Richer, who was associate director of operations in 2004 and 2005 for the Central Intelligence Agency. ‘If something happened to Musharraf tomorrow, another general would step in.’

“Based on the succession plan, the vice chief of the army, Gen. Ahsan Saleem Hyat, would take over as the leader of the army and Mohammedmian Soomro, an ex-banker, would become president.

“American officials say that Pakistan’s intelligence service, the I.S.I., continues to play a direct role in arming and financing the Taliban’s re-emergence in western Pakistan, and there are worries about the relationships between some senior military leaders and Islamist groups.

“The ties between Islamic militants and Pakistan’s security services are decades old, with the two sides working together most closely during the mujahadeen battles against the Soviet Army in Afghanistan in the 1980s.

“The fear within Washington that Islamic extremism has become a dominant force in Pakistan has been stoked in part by Mr. Musharraf himself. Some analysts say his warnings are used to maintain a steady flow of American aid and keep at bay demands from Washington for democratic reforms. He often invokes the dangers of Islamic radicalism when meeting American officials in Washington and Islamabad, and his narrow escape in two assassination attempts is frequently cited by President Bush as evidence of his tenuous grip on power.

“While the Islamists would surely take power in any way possible, an examination of polling data and recent election results — however suspect in a less than democratic country — provides little evidence that Islamists have enough support to take over the country. If anything, they would likely control only select areas.

“The last time Pakistan went to the polls in 2002, religious political parties received just 11 percent of the vote, compared with more than 28 percent won by the secular party led by Benazir Bhutto, the former prime minister.

“And that election may have even been a high-water mark for the Islamists, who were capitalizing on surging anti-American sentiment after the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. Even though the Iraq war has also inflamed anti-Western attitudes, these sentiments do not seem to have translated into electoral gains for Islamist parties.”

Meanwhile Musharraf has sacked Pakistan’s Chief Justice. Says The Times of India: “Pakistan is in the throes of a ‘junta versus judiciary’ clash between president Pervez Musharraf and chief justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry after the latter, suspected to be under house arrest, refused to resign amid nationwide protests by lawyers in his support.

“Lawyers, media persons and even a sitting judge, Raja Fayyaz Ahmed, were turned away from Chaudhry’s residence, ‘politely, but firmly’, by the police and staff, local reports said.

“Protests and rallies took place across the country as PM Shaukat Aziz tersely justified the president’s action of suspending Chaudhry and referring the charge of misuse of authority levelled against him before the Supreme Judicial Council (SJC).”

Another news story quoted Bush administration as saying that “the US forces have been conducting hot pursuit of terrorists into Pakistani territory and will continue to do so if circumstances demand it.

“Dropping all concern for Pakistani sensitivities and any pretence of shielding General Musharraf from a domestic backlash on the issue, a high-ranking US military official told a Senate committee that American forces on Afghanistan’s eastern border routinely fire upon and pursue Taliban enemies into Pakistan.

” ‘We have all the authorities we need to pursue, either with artillery fire or on the ground, across the border,’ Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

“Pakistan had insisted to date that no foreign forces would be allowed to violate its territory.”