GOP Debate More Proof Of Why Obama Will Win Re-Election
Jun 14th, 2011 | 18 responses
Lots of ink and electrons being spilled on the GOP debate but to me it is just further proof that President Obama is likely to win re-election in 2012. You can toss back and forth which of the GOP contenders did better but the fact is nobody turned in a stellar performance.One of the keys to winning an election is connecting with the voters and that is the one area in which President Obama does extremely well while none of the GOP contenders seem to have mastered the technique yet.
Recently Tim Pawlenty appeared on the Today show and attempted to pull of a joke. The result was painful at best.
Contrast that with what President Obama said during a recent speech.
We get about 40,000 pieces of mail at the White House every day, and I ask my team to select 10 letters for me to read that are representative of what people are feeling out there. And I will tell you these really are representative, because about half of them call me an idiot
There is just no comparison on the charm and charisma front and in this media age that is a key to winning an election.
At this point I see only two ways that the President loses.
The first is if the voters decide to lay blame for the economy entirely on Obama (assuming it continues to sag). This does not seem very likely. Voters have started to make the transition from blaming everything on Bush and the GOP to blaming both sides, but that took a couple years to start and is still developing. I don’t see them taking the next step to blame it all on Obama, especially with the House under Republican control.
The second way Obama could lose is if there is some huge scandal that breaks at just the wrong time. Obviously I cannot predict if such a scandal will break but considering how heavily the right has investigated Obama I consider it pretty unlikely.
And even with a scandal or bad economy the GOP nominee would still have to pass the uncertainty test. If voters aren’t sure the GOP candidate would do better than Obama, or if they are turned off by the nominee (read Palin for example) then Obama wins anyway.
Obviously it is a long way to go until November 2012 but I just don’t see how the President loses at this point.
18 Responses to “GOP Debate More Proof Of Why Obama Will Win Re-Election”
I think it’s still too early to make any predictions. However wrong it is, people still blame the president when things go wrong, and the economy is still far from stable.
I think the Republicans have a better shot than many pundits are giving them credit for. Consider that Obama won in 2008 by a 7% margin. Not a squeaker but not a landslide either. Now consider that
1) He was running against one of the most uncharismatic candidates imaginable, assuming that really is the key as you assert.
2) People were sick of 8 years of Bush.
3) The financial meltdown happened during the election season under a Republican president.
4) He had very little prior record to critique and instead could run on his promises for the future.
5) He was running to be the first black president.
All of these major factors are no longer as much in his favor, if at all:
1) Many of the Republican candidates are more charismatic than McCain, granted they are not Obama.
2) People have had 4 years of not hearing about Bush on the news everyday.
3) Obama has taken on his share of the blame for the economy, even if not all of it.
4) He now has an executive record, some of it unpopular, to defend, and some on his side are discouraged because of the lack of the promised progress.
5) He is running to be the first black president to be re-elected.
This could be summed up in his new campaign slogan: “Change is over-rated. Go with the Same this time.”
Don’t get me wrong. Smart money is still on Obama, but a Republican candidate has a good shot.
Gosh, Patrick, you might as well make the prediction headline that “The sun will not rise tomorrow!”…… and then add some qualifier like “unless, of course, it does”
AD, thank you for giving us the courtesy of some rationale.
My rationale is even more simple…..history shows that incumbents win at an extraordinary high percentage rate, however, no one has won reelection for POTUS at anything less than 49% approval. Unless he is going to defy history big time, Obama is actually hanging on by his teeth at the moment.
Of course, if God appears at Mt. Sinai, all bets are off.
3 months is a lifetime in politics so we are way ahead of the curve.
No President has ever been re-elected with a rate of unemployment >8%
“No President has ever been re-elected with a rate of unemployment >8%”
FDR.
I daresay no president has been both more loved and more demonized than FDR either. As for the GOP chances, it’s hard for me to get excited about it either way. Obama is practically a moderate republican as it is and while a branded republican could always make things worse, Obama has been a great disappointment to liberals and progressives. People have been waiting for genuine courage and inspiration in a president for a long time now. I don’t see that combination anywhere in the field – at least not to any significant degree.
Two or three times if memory serves.
Thanks tidbits.
Edit to add: I agree with all JSpencer says, too. Sure glad I’m old and have my little pile already because that most on the right (except for tidbits and a few others) seemed hell bent on taking the American people down the tubes simply for the sake of partisanship.
Obama is not FDR, JFK, “MLK,” Jesus, et cetera. Not that EJS is one of them, but it’s necessary (to sustain or improve society as well as the electorate) to remind anybody who still believes Obama is all these.
As for FDR, main actor in our third revolution, please don’t do hype.
Adeline’s Dad wrote:
If Obama gets cocky or lax, there’s a good chance still for the GOP. (Otherwise, I would have little confidence in a GOP retaking of the White House).
After all, Bush the Elder flubbed, and more importantly, Gore had the White House handed to him and he proceeded to lose it, notably in the debates against Dubya(!).
DLS, is english your first language? Just curious as I sometimes have trouble figuring out what it is you’re trying to say.
“most on the right (except for tidbits and a few others) seemed hell bent on taking the American people down the tubes simply for the sake of partisanship.” ~ SteveK
Agreed Steve. The GOP does NOT want to see the economy improve before the election in 2012. Anyone who thinks they do is either terribly naive or hasn’t been paying attention.
Yes, we’re still nearly a year and a half out, but Patrick is right insofar that Obama has nothing to fear from what was said at the GOP debate.
“Obama is practically a moderate republican as it is and while a branded republican could always make things worse, Obama has been a great disappointment to liberals and progressives”
This opinion is exactly why I like Obama so much. The left doesn’t like him. The right hates him. I think he is “just right”. No pun intended, but the 3 bears story is
Many on the far Left act as though Obama has “betrayed” them. These are the same people who said the Democrats’ problem in 2009-2010 was that they didn’t go far left enough(!). These people would never vote for a Republican, ever, as a philosophical matter. Add to that the many libs and Dems who can’t read or understand, and who often seem still to like Obama’s campaign circus act (even if they’re no longer Messiah-groupies), and add to that the general weakness and dysfunctionality of the Republicans currently, and Obama remains strong. He just shouldn’t get cocky — or move too far left again.
As a “far leftie” who feels “betrayed” by Obama and feel that democrats “didn’t go far left enough” I have to say DLS’s ignorance of who and what the left is is mind-boggling.
I voted mostly Republican (with the exception of George Miller D-CA) from 1968 (Nixon) until 1992 (Clinton).
Budgeting you time and money to raise a family “properly” (whatever that means) tends to make young people conservative (my opinion / my life) but when that “job” is done I can’t understand why so many get stuck in this binding, limiting rut. Learning and growing are both quite liberal and liberating!
DLS’s non sequitur attack on “libs and Dems”…
… only highlights his ignorance and lack of understanding and does nothing… absolutely nothing to promote discussion or dialog.
In a climate as polarized as ours it’s easy to be sympathetic to the (oft expressed) love of “moderation”, but the sad fact is that moderation seems to produce nothing but continuation of a beleaguered status quo and/or gridlock – and perhaps the illusion that something worthwhile is being accomplished. Should we settle for illusion?
“…moderation seems to produce nothing but continuation of a beleaguered status quo and/or gridlock – and perhaps the illusion that something worthwhile is being accomplished. Should we settle for illusion?” – JSpencer.
I disagree, JS. Moderate pragmatism has proven to be an effective governing philosophy. The best recent examples are Eisenhower and Clinton, who, I would argue, are the two best presidents of the last 60 years.
Gridlock, and the resultant being stuck in a “beleaguered status quo”, is the result of ideological warfare in a nation too divided for either to succeed. The real illusion is that ideological purity will lead us to the promised land. Ideological purity routinely…almost always… results in excess, whereas pragmatic moderation routinely leads to steady progress that serves the best interests of the people and the nation.
My view.
The real illusion, indeed — along with what I witness all the time from illusionists who are upset that their wishes aren’t shared by others such as myself.
Pragmatic moderation is going to grind at these people more heavily than ever after 2020, when the money runs short and no longer can setting priorities and ending what shouldn’t be continued be avoided. What that does for illusory “puritans” likely will be awful if the reactions such as to what I write on this site now are any hint.
I hardly think that Obama will have an easy or simple road to the Presidency again. If Romney gets the nomination nod, it’ll be a close race. Anyone else and there’ll be a FLOOD of available blunders available via the internet for left-wing PACs and SuperPACs to utilize for their campaigning purposes. With the Citizens United case upheld, this is most certainly going to be an interesting campaign cycle.