(Updated) Iraq: Trying to Wish the War Away

The downtick in stories in the prints, on TV and online about violence in Baghdad is encouraging and would seem to be a result of the onset of Operation Imposing Law, the so-called “surge” security crackdown in the capital.

But the relative calm is illusory. Anti-American cleric Moqtada Al-Sadr has withdrawn to Iran and his Mahdi Army and ethnic cleansing squads have withdrawn into the shadows, and I suspect that it’s only a matter of time before the surge is declared a success, both cleric and army are heard from again and the downtick is history.

Then there are the tireless cheerleaders like Omar, who blogs at Iraq the Model and has been writing for Pajamas Media. Omar’s latest sighting of the light at the end of the tunnel was dutifully picked up by Glenn Reynolds at Instapundit:

“Violent incidents are still decreasing in number and impact in Baghdad. Yesterday for instance the only reported incident was the abduction of an adviser to the minister of defense by gunmen in western Baghdad. It was less than 24 hours until the security forces succeeded in freeing the abducted general and arresting 4 of his captors.”

It is not my intention to deprecate Omar and Glenn, although I am bemused by the latter’s fondness for rose-colored glasses. For example, five links to Iraq stories over the last two days, all positive and rather one-sided accounts. (I guess somebody has to balance things out, right?)

These bloggers certainly mean well and I too want the security crackdown to succeed. But I winced when I read Omar’s words because I knew that it was only a matter of time before the calm was shattered.

In fact, it was less than 12 hours after he posted his wishful thinking that a suicide car bomber detonated explosives in a book market along busy Mutanabi Street in central Baghdad, killing 28 people and wounding 56 others. (Details here on the blast and deaths of nine U.S. soldiers north of the capital, as well as two blasts and small-arms attacks today that killed more than 120 Shiite pigrims to the south.) In other news that flies in the face of wishful thinking, only about a dozen of the 275 members of Iraq’s parliament showed up today when it convened after a one-month recess.

Yes, Baghdad is a big place and the security sweep is currently focused in the Sadr City slum district. Troops cannot be everywhere. But in a war characterized by abysmally poor planning followed by four years of missteps, it is not merely premature to declare that Operation Imposing Law is going well after so short a time, it is folly.

Just as it is folly for Bush administration sycophants to crow that there hasn’t been an attack on the homeland since 9/11 because of the superb job that the president and his minions are doing.

Lemme tell you, Bucko: The reason that there hasn’t been an attack has more to do with good old dumb luck than anything else because we know that America remains unprepared to prevent, let alone deal with, another attack.

And finally, a memo to Omar and Glenn: Take a deep breath. Get back to us in three or four months and then we’ll see if that light that Omar saw was really at the end of the tunnel or merely another mirage in the great wasteland that Iraq has become.

Bill Roggio has done some of the best blogging from and about the war at The Third Rail. He and some cobloggers are currently providing detailed daily updates on the Baghdad security sweep.

More here.