Is There Instability In Iran?

Posted by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief in At TMV.
Mar 2nd, 2007 | 2 responses

2 Responses to “Is There Instability In Iran?”

1. Rudi says:

   March 2, 2007 at 9:12 am

   Joe – Most adult ME experts aren’t in favor of forced insurection in Iran, the spillover from unstable Iraq and Iran WOULD throw the whole ME in turmoil. If the Kurds in Iraq and Iran tried to form a larger Kurdistan, Turkey would have a war within it’s territory and the other two countries to address.
2. Chris says:

   March 2, 2007 at 10:30 am

   Noam Chomsky:

   Again, I would be amazed if there aren’t efforts to sponsor secessionist movements elsewhere, among the Azeri population for example. It’s a very complex ethnic mix in Iran; much of the population isn’t Persian. There are secessionist tendencies anyway and almost certainly, without knowing any of the facts, the United States is trying to stir them up, to break the country internally if possible. The strategy appears to be: try to break the country up internally, try to impel the leadership to be as harsh and brutal as possible.

   That’s the immediate consequence of constant threats. Everyone knows that. That’s one of the reasons the reformists, Shirin Ebadi and Akbar Ganji and others, are bitterly complaining about the U.S. threats, that it’s undermining their efforts to reform and democratize Iran. But that’s presumably its purpose. Since it’s an obvious consequence you have to assume it’s the purpose. Just like in law, anticipated consequences are taken as the evidence for intention. And here’s it so obvious you can’t seriously doubt it.

   So it could be that one strain of the policy is to stir up secessionist movements, particularly in the oil rich regions, the Arab regions near the Gulf, also the Azeri regions and others. Second is to try to get the leadership to be as brutal and harsh and repressive as possible, to stir up internal disorder and maybe resistance. And a third is to try to pressure other countries, and Europe is the most amenable, to join efforts to strangle Iran economically. Europe is kind of dragging its feet but they usually go along with the United States.