Open Thread

Open thread.

Play nice.

6 Responses to “Open Thread”

1. Alan G says:

   February 19, 2007 at 8:27 am

   I have a confession to make. Remember when Marc Shulman started that thread about Vietnam vets being spit on, and how it happened to him?

   Well, I’m the one who spit on Marc.:) But in my defense it was because I thought he was Richard Nixon.

   You see, I was on a flight from Chicago to San Francisco aboard a 747. I spend the entire 4 hours in the plane’s piano bar, drinking cocktails and dancing the Hustle.

   When we landed I was drunk as a skunk. I got off the jetway, stumbling over my bellbottoms, and wandered towards the gift shop.
   There Marc, just back from Vietnam, was arguing with the clerk, who falsely accused him of shoplifting a mood ring. Shaking his jowls, he angrily shouted, “I’m no crook!”

   And that’s the story.
2. ChuckPrez says:

   February 19, 2007 at 8:39 am

   Can Earth Dodge Asteroid Heading This Way? This One is Uncomfortably Close, Scientists Warn, and Some Wonder if It Needs to Be Deflected

   Feb. 19, 2007 — Circle your calendar. April 13th, 2036 could be a really, really bad day on planet Earth.

   A group of astronauts and engineers warns that an asteroid may pass uncomfortably close to Earth that day. The chances it will actually hit are just one in 45,000, but even at those odds, the scientists warn, the United Nations should consider a response.

   Potential Threat

   The scientists met this past weekend in San Francisco to discuss the potential threats asteroids pose to the Earth and what can be done to prevent a possible collision.

   Most feared is Apophis, a large asteroid that will pass within 10,000 miles of Earth around 2029 and even closer in 2036.

   Dr. Dan Barry, a retired astronaut, told ABC News, “Even if the probability is low of an asteroid hitting earth, if it has the potential to have a significant impact then it has to be looked at. It is the absolutely responsible thing to do. In fact, it would irresponsible not to do so.”

   …once again, our planet is nothing in the grand scheme of the cosmos
3. ChuckPrez says:

   February 19, 2007 at 9:30 am

   BONDS ARE FORECASTING A 2007 RECESSION

   We believe the intermediate-term risks in Bonds have moved away from a decline to a rise in prices, and to declining long-term interest rates. This is frightening, as it means we are about to enter another recession, one that could be deeper than we have seen in a long time.

   There is a Head & Shoulders Top in formation, not yet confirmed, but looking textbook, that supports a decline into the 106-ish area over the next several weeks and months. The timing is interesting as a sharp drop in Bonds here will unnerve stock and housing markets over the next several months. This should trigger the coming recession, which will in turn force the Fed to buy Bonds with the same fervor it sends its regulators in after bankers. Spending a ton of freshly printed electronic money, the Fed must drive interest rates much lower in the second half of 2007. That flood of fresh money during the coming recession will devalue the Dollar sharply.

   The technical landscape pointing toward a 2007 recession is supported by the economic reports. Here’s the news from this week – mostly dour:

   Industrial Output fell 0.5 percent in January, with the manufacturing component dropping 0.7 percent, mostly related to motor vehicles, according to the Federal Reserve. This was the largest decline in 16 months. The Philadelphia Fed reported that its Business Activity Index for the Mid-Atlantic region fell to 0.6 in February from 8.3 in January.

   Housing Starts plunged 14.3 percent in January, to the slowest pace in over 9 years, since 1997, according to the Census Bureau. This was 22 percent below the 2006 monthly average. New Single Family Home Permits fell 4.0 percent in January, a six year low. This is just the building side. We have 1.5 million adjustable rate mortgages scheduled to reset significantly higher this year; foreclosures are up; and prices (loan collateral) are down.

   According to the National Association of Realtors, Housing Prices fell 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter 2006 versus the same period in 2005, the largest year over year decline ever. Second homes are getting killed, many vacation areas showing price drops of 20 percent.

   Mortgage applications rose 1.5 percent in the latest reporting week. But those are apps. Let’s see how many loans close given the sub-prime lender problems and declining prices (appraisal values). There’s only one way out of this mess: sacrificing the dollar. A planned hyperinflation of the money supply and devaluation of the dollar will assure that markets rise in nominal prices, a necessity given the debt crisis that is looming. There is simply an imbalance between income and debt service, and if asset valuations are permitted to decline, the result will be economic chaos. There is no choice here for the Fed. They must print and get that money into as many consumer hands as possible. They must lift market prices higher — buy bonds (and ergo stimulate housing) and stocks; and raise cash for increased entitlement payments — put cash directly into the hands of consumers. The Fed must pretend to be inflation vigilant, while doubling the money supply. This is a magician’s act, a house of cards. Precious metals should benefit.

   The Labor Department reported that, using their unique methods of counting, U.S. Producer Prices as measured by their Producer Price Index (PPI) actually declined, depressed, down 0.6 percent in January. This is part of the delusion of inflation restraint while money supply is quietly hyper-inflated. Fresh printed money gets into the system by the Fed buying anything, taking possession of anything, in exchange for that fresh new money. If the Fed buys bonds, the bond market catches a bid and rallies, and money gets into the economy. Anyone holding bonds feels wealthier and can use the higher priced portfolio to qualify to borrow more money (also causing the money supply to grow). They can take that loan and buy real estate, thereby putting pressure on housing prices to rise, alleviating the housing crunch. If the Fed buys stocks through the Working Group, the Plunge Protection Team, same result. Equity markets rise on the fresh liquidity injection, catching the PPT’s bid, creating a wealth effect for shareholders. Investors can use their higher priced stocks to borrow to buy real estate, or more stock, or diamonds, or art, or whatever. The Dollar is down the john in this scenario, so the Fed must keep their printing and buying activities a secret, pretend they are vigilant about inflation via garbage numbers reported by Labor, through toothless jawboning at congressional sessions, etc… Why it has gotten so bad that hardly anyone from congress showed up at the Bernanke meetings this week. They must figure, what is the point? Anything spoken is pure bologna anyway. The real action is in the secret PPT meetings and M-3 figures.

   The Labor Department reported that Initial Jobless Claims rose a huge 44,000 last week to 357,000.
4. Michael van der Galien says:

   February 19, 2007 at 9:38 am

   C.Prez thanks for posting that. I wonder in how far this very negative prediction will come true. Any one with more knowledge about economy (which is obviously not my strength).
5. Pyst says:

   February 19, 2007 at 1:04 pm

   FRIST!
6. kolinerte says:

   March 15, 2007 at 8:43 am

   Chill out!
   PRIVACY PROTECTOR is now here to make of your pleasure a private matter.