Iraqi Terrorists Adapting
The New York Times reports:
Documents captured from Iraqi insurgents indicate that some of the recent fatal attacks against American helicopters are a result of a carefully planned strategy to focus on downing coalition aircraft, one that American officials say has been carried out by mounting coordinated assaults with machine guns, rockets and surface-to-air missiles.
The documents, said to have been drafted by Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, show that the militants were preparing to “concentrate on the air force.� The contents of the documents are described in an American intelligence report that was reviewed by The New York Times.
The American military has said that seven helicopters have been downed since Jan. 20, a figure that exceeds the total number of coalition aircraft shot down in 2006.
After downing the helicopters, the insurgents often laid ambushes for the American ground troops they expected to come to the rescue, sometimes using roadside bombs that they placed in advance. American troops were attacked in five instances in which they rushed to the scene of aircraft that had been shot down, military officials said.
This is obviously a very significant development. Taking down aircraft costs a lot of American lives, it costs the American military a lot of money and it is highly symbolic. Seeing an American helicopter that has been shot down by Iraqi terrorists has a very negative impact on American national psyche.
According to some American analysts the terrorists don’t use new weapons, they simply use a new strategy.
Importantly:
Maj. Gen. James E. Simmons, a deputy commander of the American-led multinational force in Iraq and an Army aviator, told reporters this week that multiple weapons systems had been used against American troops before, in attacks south of Baghdad last year.
“This is not a new tactic,� he said. “But it is the first time that we have seen it employed in several months.�
“We are engaged with a thinking enemy,â€? he added. “This enemy understands based on the reporting and everything else that we are in the process of executing the prime minister’s new plan for the security of Baghdad. And they understand the strategic implications of shooting down an aircraft.”
This means that the American military has to think as well. The American military has to adapt to the adaptation of the Iraqi terrorists.
As Michael Gordon points out, helicopters are used extensively in Iraq. In 2006 U.S. army helicopters flew 270 000 hours. In 2007 that’s expected to increase to 400 000 hours.
Obviously taking down helicopters provides the terrorists with some ‘great’ propaganda material. They film it, put it on the Internet, millions of people watch it.
Gaius meanwhile rightfully remarks that “inquiring minds want to know exactly where they are getting the weapons. Someone is facilitating these attacks and supplying the weaponry.”
It doesn’t seem to be far-fetched to me that Iran might be delivering (some of) the weaponry.
I have said it before; the U.S. does not have to exaggerate Iran’s involvement in Iraq / Iran’s support for terrorism. Iran is supporting terrorists in Iran, in Lebanon, in Palestine, etc.
Back to the subject at hand, Merv comments:
The article has descriptions of the recent attacks. The focus of the enemy is pretty much what I anticipated. They are using their own “combined arms” approach. By throwing up a lot of different ordinance at the same time they fire anti aircraft missiles they present the pilots with more to deal with and make it possible that something will break through the defenses…
It is possible that with their scouting, the enemy is predicting flight paths and preparing attack positions to take advantage of them.
If so it is important that pilots not only vary their approach but their altitude during operations in Iraq.
Indeed. The question is whether the American military will adapt before many more helicopters are shot down.
We also have to wonder whether this will spread to Afghanistan (it’s very likely that it will). If so, what will it mean for the coalition forces there? British and Dutch (and other) troops are fighting in Afghanistan, at the moment many helicopters are being taken down, support the war in Afghanistan, still widely considered to be legit, might decrease.
8 Responses to “Iraqi Terrorists Adapting”
Good roundup, michael, thx. But what shall I make of this:
“It doesn’t seem to be far-fetched to me that Iran might be delivering (some of) the weaponry.”
Well, it sure seems far-fetched for me, since the story explicitly states:
“The officials also noted that the attack was the only recent instance in which a Shiite group — in this case, the Soldiers of Heaven — was responsible for shooting down a helicopter.”
Hello? What part of this sentence is hard to understand? And one side before, who’s behind the attack is clearly named:
“Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, which the intelligence report says leads the insurgent group known as the Islamic State of Iraq, has claimed responsibility for shooting down three of the helicopters.”
Sry, Michael, but where do you ge your idea that Iran is involved? This is contrary to the facts known so far. And I want to point out that the ‘Strela’ series of handheld ground-air missiles is produced by Russia. Just look at the list of former Russian states around the Middle East, and at the increasing corruption in the underpaid Russian Army, and it should be clear that it’s not exactly difficult for experienced arms smugglers to lay their hands on these highly demanded weapons.
Adaptation- goddamned Darwin!
I agree with Gray’s comment about “It doesn’t seem to be far-fetched to me that Iran might be delivering (some of) the weaponry”.
Yes, but the question is still what proportion of the weaponry is coming from there? 1%? 10%? 50%? The answer matters to policy decisions, and as a conservative you should be concerned that when lives are at stake that resources flow to the most important problems that are most amenable to solution.
The pernicious dynamic at work here is to focus on one problem out of many, and also to focus on something that generates moral outrage more than something that is empirically important.
MvdG-I have to also agree with Gray, al queda has publicly claimed responsibility for most of these helicopter attacks.
I have no doubt that Iran is meddling in Iraq–they probably know that the longer our military remains entangled in this expensive, draining war, the fewer resources will be available to use against them and their nuclear program. They remember Bush’s idiotic “Axis of Evil” speech and they remember the costly consequences of the USSR’s ten-year long war in Afghanistan, and how its empire collapsed shortly afterwards. Yes, Iran is meddling. But so are the Jordanians, the Saudis, the Syrians and a host of other neighbors who would not benefit from a Shiite crescent.
Why all the attention solely on Iran? Imo, it is to deflect blame when the war inevitably is lost. The surge is a stopgap measure, and even if it worked it would be unsustainable for more than a few months. When we do lose, Bush can point to the meddlesome Iranians and the Defeatocrats, instead of 4 years of inept strategy which followed the initially fatally flawed war plan.
Americans think of war as a TV show, to watch and root for the team. Many Americans think of war as Grenada or GW1. Few causalities and ticker taoe parades. WWII, Korea and Vietnam was “hell” compared to our MTV/reality show wars. Look at what is going on to the seriously wounded soldiers, they are being defunded and ignored.
“Adaptation- goddamned Darwin!” LOL damn good one cosmoetica.
Thing is as long as we intend to play in these guys backyard this kind of thing is going to happen.
We are in a defensive stance regardless of how the US military reacts. The team on offense dictates military action always, and we by winning the invasion/actual war part of the whole operation are on defense till this whole thing ends. The bad guys can move around as they see fit while we have to hold strategic points therefore we are going to get slowly chewed up, and Americans are inheriently impatient.
We could go on offense, but that would require killing non-combatants and destroy infrastructure of which we can’t afford to do for bad PR reasons with the Iraqis in the non-combatants area, and also we don;t rebuild what we destroy. Therefore we are screwed untill the Iraqi gov. and military decides to do it’s job, and we go home/guard the damn borders instead and let them run the cities.
You’ve nailed it MVG.
Iran is supplying Sunni insurgents in Iraq.
And no doubt, Saudi Arabia is funding the Shia militias right?
Of course, since there’s no history of ethnic strife in the region, who cares?
Pure Bliss…..
I think all of these ties to Iran is starting to make me paranoid. Today there was a story on the news about three women who had been bludgeoned to death in their apartment? The suspect being held for questioning??? An Iranian immigrant. Just add illegal, and its a wingers wet dream.