Sabato’s Crystal Ball: SENATE RACES ’08 – Down to the Wire Again?

Three of the last four election years have produced squeaker results in the Senate contests. In 2000 the parties emerged from November in a 50-50 tie, broken by new Vice President Cheney in the GOP’s favor in 2001. Just five months later, the Republican-to-Independent/Democratic switch of Senator Jim Jeffords of Vermont gave the Senate to the Democrats, 51-49. The post-9/11 election of 2002 flipped the Senate narrowly back in the Republicans’ direction, 51-49. Five Southern Democratic retirements in 2004 resulted in five GOP pick-ups, as the Republicans soared to a 55-45 Senate majority. This was a short-lived bump, of course, and the Democrats grabbed six Republican seats in 2006 to restore the 51-49 Senate produced by Jeffords. Since 1994 Congress’ upper chamber has remained closely contested, and in the seven general elections over the past dozen years, the GOP has on average secured 52.5 seats to the Democrats’ 47.5.

At least to judge by the early line-up, it will be a surprise if the Senate doesn’t remain highly competitive after November 2008, with neither party having anywhere near the sixty reliable votes needed to run this balky, idiosyncratic institution–the saucer that cools the hot brew in the House teacup…