John McIntyre wrote an interesting article for Real Clear Politics in which he deals with the ‘conventional wisdom’ that Rudy Giuliani “is un-nominatable as a Republican for President given his less than conservative positions on many social issues.” In McIntyre’s opinion… this conventional wisdom is wrong:
Not only can Giuliani win the GOP nomination, but as the Republican field sits today he has to be considered the favorite.
As Republicans look to their standard bearer in what will be a post-9/11 and post-George W. Bush world, the usual handicapping yard-sticks that may have worked in the ’80’s and 90’s won’t work this cycle.
Leadership is going to be the single most important issue to Republican voters and this is almost certainly Giuliani’s strongest asset. As long as McCain remains Giuliani’s chief rival for the nomination, Rudy will hold an advantage for the simple reason that conservatives like Rudy Giuliani and do not like John McCain. Leadership and the conservative animus toward McCain are why Giuliani has the edge.
The strategic box Giuliani puts McCain in is significant, especially since one of McCain’s selling points to Republicans was always going to be that he could deliver a win in the general election. But the obvious tactic to employ against Giuliani, trying to undermine him with conservative base voters by attacking him on social issues, also undercuts McCain’s ability to win the general election, which in turn, undermines his strongest selling point to Republicans.
Although, according to McIntyre, Giuliani should be considered to be the favorite, McCain should not be underestimated. On McCain:
Strategically, McCain would be well advised to position himself as the pro-growth, supply-side conservative in the Republican field. While Giuliani may be the favorite today, McCain should not be underestimated, especially if he were to get behind a bold pro-growth, economic agenda like a flat tax and private accounts for Social Security.
He explains that former “Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney” has his own significant problems, same goes for, for instance, Newt Gingrich.
I’m with McIntyre on this one: I believe the conventional wisdom to be wrong as well. In fact, I’d say, the most likely race will ultimately be… Giuliani vs. Clinton.
Just as I and others think that Republicans fear Hillary, I think that Democrats fear Giuliani.
And they should. Giuliani will be able to appeal to many independents and… without their support one can simply not win the elections.
Barbara O’Brien wrote a long post blasting Giuliani called: What America Needs to Know About Rudy Giuliani. Marc Ambinder rightly points out that “the more liberals attack Giuliani, the more comfortable conservatives will feel about him.” He adds in the comment section: “if we want to keep the White House, we need to avoid such things as demonizing those whose lifestyles differ from ours, and intentionally reigniting the culture wars…we need to remember that the person elected in 2008 is going to have to appeal to more than the base, because, if you didn’t notice in 2006, the base has shrunk…”
Quite right.
The only question I have is… when will the Republican party as a whole start to understand that? I hope for the sake of the Republican party… this year, because if it takes much more time for them to figure this, it will be very difficult for the Republicans to win the elections in 08.
P.S.
Of course, it has to be said, like Joe pointed out in his Hillary post: nothing is sure in politics.
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