GOP political maven Karl Rove is warning Republicans in his own inimitable way to be careful what they wish for: if you shut down the government, he says, you risk making Barack Obama look stronger at time when he is appearing weaker:
Not all Republicans think a potential government shutdown would be good for the GOP.
In a memo posted to his website, former Bush strategist Karl Rove points to polling numbers in the aftermath of the 1995 government shutdown that show the issue actually boosted President Clinton’s numbers ahead of his re-election campaign.
“The shutdowns helped improve Clinton’s political standing, boosting both his approval rating and perceptions of him as a strong leader,” Rove writes, hinting the same might happen with President Obama.
Rove posted numbers showing how Bill Clinton’s rating saw a near double-digit jump during the shut down and those numbers kept improving up until Clinton’s re-election.
“While the government shutdowns didn’t jeopardize Republicans’ hold on Congress, they helped President Clinton position himself for a successful 1996 reelection,” Rove writes. “President Obama’s ratings as a strong leader have slipped this year … Republicans should be careful not to let him recover as he gears up for his 2012 reelection campaign.”
That’s not the only risk: because the insistence to defund Planned Parenthood does not really involve abortion-use money but vital health services for women such as cancer screening, Republicans risk losing the votes of many women at a time when they are in trouble among Hispanic voters, union households and will probably have trouble with seniors.
Could social conservatives, Tea Party members and talk radio fans make up that definitive 2012 loss?
Rove’s comments underscore how there is at least a general consensus among political pros general consensus about how to do political business. It ends with a calculation on pluses and minuses and some form of compromise.
And then there’s this: a new Pew poll finds that Tea Party support is falling — particularly among independent voters:
Twenty-two percent of respondents “agree” with the Tea Party, while 29 percent said they “disagree,” a new Pew survey found.
A new poll from the Pew Research Center shows that as the visibility of the Tea Party movement has increased over the past year, so has its negatives.The survey found that currently just 22 percent of respondents “agree” with the Tea Party, while 29 percent said they “disagree.” Another 49 percent said they either had no opinion or hadn’t heard of the Tea Party.
The numbers mark a turnaround from November, when Tea Party activists helped Republicans net 63 congressional seats and retake control of the House. Last fall, 27 percent of those polled said they agreed with the Tea Party’s views, compared to just 22 percent who said they disagreed.Tea Party activists are playing a central role in the current budget standoff in Washington, pushing the House GOP leadership and its newly elected freshman members to stand firm on their pledge to cut at least $61 billion in spending.
Congressional leaders and the White House are still working to reach a budget agreement and avert a government shutdown Friday.
“The rise in negative views of the Tea Party has occurred largely among political independents and Democrats,” reads a Pew analysis of the results. “Last March, more independents agreed than disagreed with the Tea Party by a 26% to 14% margin. Today, as many independents disagree as agree with the Tea Party (27% each); the percentage disagreeing with the Tea Party has risen 13 points.”
Meanwhile, contrast Rove’s analysis and advice with Sarah Palin’s:
Sarah Palin wants to see the federal government shut down — as long as Barack Obama gets blamed for it.
Palin tweeted her position Thursday night, but didn’t seem to indicate that Republicans are playing a role in the negotiations. After news broke that the president would veto a one-week extension proposed by Republicans, Palin took to Twitter to encourage the GOP to back a shutdown unless the president caved.
“Pres will veto 1-week spending bill to avoid govt shutdown if Congress passes,” Palin said. “So, now $4T later, leaderless govt digs further debt, bickers over cutting peanuts — peanuts we don’t even have. It’s unsustainable! Let him shut it.”
“Obama’s petulant obstruction = shutdown,” she added.
Palin upped the ante Friday with a searing Facebook missive attacking Obama’s “appalling action with our troops.”
Prediction: if there is a shutdown it will hurt the GOP for these reasons:
if the key is swing voters it’s likely swing voters will be disgusted at both sides — but angrier at one side than another.
And, most likely, vote accordingly.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.