China Destroys Satellite through Missile
The New York Times reports:
China successfully carried out its first test of an antisatellite weapon last week, signaling its resolve to play a major role in military space activities and bringing expressions of concern from Washington and other capitals, the Bush administration said yesterday.
Only two nations — the Soviet Union and the United States — have previously destroyed spacecraft in antisatellite tests, most recently the United States in the mid-1980s.
Arms control experts called the test, in which the weapon destroyed an aging Chinese weather satellite, a troubling development that could foreshadow an antisatellite arms race. Alternatively, however, some experts speculated that it could precede a diplomatic effort by China to prod the Bush administration into negotiations on a weapons ban.
“This is the first real escalation in the weaponization of space that we’ve seen in 20 years,� said Jonathan McDowell, a Harvard astronomer who tracks rocket launchings and space activity. “It ends a long period of restraint.�
Ed Morrissey points out that the debris could cause tremendous damage to other satellites as well and goes on to write:
We can’t really afford to have more debris fields get created in orbits where our critical assets operate. The kinds of offensive weapons that we are rumored to pursue (satellite-killing lasers) appear to still be years away, even with the combined R&D efforts of both the Clinton and Bush administrations. The reluctance may come from the impact such negotiations could have on the efforts to build an missile shield for the US using space-based laser systems to destroy ballistic missiles and warheads in flight. The question will be of priorities — is it more important to secure our existing military and communications satellites, or to keep open a path to a missile shield that the Chinese now could knock out?
Noah Schachtman fears for an arms race in space. In the ‘update’:
Why would Beijing pull a stunt like this? The China Matters blog has a theory. Meanwhile, one keen space-watcher notes that, if this anti-sat weapon was really “kinetic” — i.e., hit-to-kill, non-explosive — instead of a plain ol’ exploding weapon, that’s extremely bad news. That means the booster rocket has to be very accurate “in order to deliver the kill vehicle to the desired initial trajectory…. Then the kill vehicle needs to tweak its trajectory into a precise collision course using on-board propulsion and either on-board target tracking or… command guidance from the ground.” That’s no mean task.
Thomas P.M. Barnett isn’t that surprised by this news. He also notices how some people argue that when the U.S. tests its weapons, it is “to preserve peace” but when, for instance, China does the same it is a threat “to global security”. He goes on to write:
This is the essence of the primacy argument of the neocons: America must not only have the biggest gun, but the only gun worth mentioning. If anyone reaches for one, they are automatically bad unless they’re already in bed with us (meaning we sell it to them).
Is this a grown-up attitude WRT China? No, strategically it’s infantile, given the everything else going on in China, the world, America, and between us and China.
My general view is quite similar to the one expressed by Thomas: I am not surprised. Obviously I did not expect this specific test now, but if China wants to develop technology like this, it can. That is something all of us should be aware of. In other words, we all have to anticipate things like this. China will be the world’s new superpower relatively soon. Without these kinds of technology, one can simply not truly be a superpower.
This test changes the balance in the world. But, acknowleding the very likely possibility that China will be a superpower within a couple of decades, means that one has to anticipate more situations like the one of today.
13 Responses to “China Destroys Satellite through Missile”
Honestly, this makes me rethink my position towards ‘star wars’…
First trilogy or second?
This is a little more like above-ground nuclear weapons testing than it is like, say, testing a conventional weapon. The Chinese have no way of controlling the shrapnel left over from such a test—nobody does. That’s, basically, why the U. S. and USSR stopped testing such things a generation ago: it was too dangerous.
It’s probably unlikely that any harm down here on earth will result. But it very well may endanger existing satellites, future ones, our shuttles, and so on. And it will be up there a very long time.
It may not be unexpected and it may well be within China’s rights to perform such a test (I’m no expert on the conventions that govern such things or China’s participation in such things). But it’s very, very impolite and the Chinese should be told so.
Unfortunately, we have very little leverage over China that we’re willing to exert so in all likelihood we’ll just have to put up with their boorish behavior.
Wait a minute, I thought we (the USA) were the only ones in the world allowed to do stuff like this??!!
http://www.minor-ripper.blogspot.com
While we are focussing all our efforts on thwarting terrorism in the ME, China is thriving. They will eventually outpace us economically and are using their economic muscle to build up their military might. Allowing the Chinese to buy our massive debt is aiding and abetting their future position as a superpower. Iran isn’t the only country that is thrilled to see the US bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan!
Dave: o I agree, it is ‘impolite’ and other countries should say so to China, but an upcoming superpower does stuff like this… because it has to. In essence it’s just showing to the world that you can do it. It won’t do it 30 times, it has to make something very clear.
I think that’s a mature reading of the situation.
[...] Bad China, bad. Very bad. The news and the missile may be all too accurate. A very troubling development. Last fall the White House said it had no plans to develop weapons in space. Nevertheless, Michael Krepon, co-founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center, a nonpartisan think tank that follows the space-weaponry issue, said the [Bush] policy changes will reinforce international suspicions that the United States may seek to develop, test and deploy space weapons. The concerns are amplified, he said, by the administration’s refusal to enter negotiations or even less formal discussions on the subject. [...]
The debris from the Chinese anti-missile test will have an equal chance or probablity to damage or destroy ANYBODIES satelites. As DS mentioned, the US and USSR stopped these test because the debris is a danger to all orbitting sats. Now lasers or an high energy EMP is a better way to disable a sat.
Here is the classic example of what I try to get across in my posting. This is diplomacy. This is politics in action. Quietly do one thing and then get behind closed doors and say okay we wont do that anymore if you wont do this anymore and both parties say okay and come out smiling and shaking hands.
This is what GWB and Pelosi should be doing and it would bring this country back to Issues that help the people and help the world instead of polarizing Americans to hate each other Thru their Political parties.
This is what Im talking about. Get er done and spare us the details.
Do you really believe this story? The NYT states explicitly said the Bush administration states this, and they have told already plenty of lies about countries they don’t like. Plus there might be an interest of American ‘space warriors’ to increase their revenue streams.
There has been not the faintest sight of a confirmation from China, though this would be a great opportunity to flex their muscles.
I think this is nothing but a hoax.
Is China going to use its technology to attack American satellites without provocation. I don’t think so. In that sense, it is just a deterrence. As long as the USA do not attack China, it has nothing to worry because the USA has much superior and much more weaponry than China.
As to the comment that USA shouldn’t have allowed China to ‘buy our massive debt’, I agree that China should not loan so much money to the US. She should have spent the money on her own people. After all, not only is her loans devaluing with the Dollar, loaning so much money to the US and helping to keep its interest rate low benefitting so many Americans has instead generated so much ill suspicion.
I am not sure if the writer of that comment would really like it if China gets back all the money she loans to USA. One thing I know he/she would say , bad China makes us suffer from high interest rate. For China either way she is blamed. Frankly America is not a country that is fun or beneficial to deal with.
Tom around the web…
+ Indistinct Union linked Is Gates really saying…. + Hidden Unities linked Petraeus and Fallon are good choices. + NonParty Politics linked the transcript from the coverage of PNM’s first chapter on Hugh’s show. + So did Penraker. + Humoud……