It Could Work

Note that I did not say it will work. Only those with powers far beyond those of mortal men could claim to know whether it will work.

As far as I’m concerned, the most encouraging part of the President’s speech is that, with the agreement of the Maliki government, U.S. and Iraqi forces will conduct military operations in all — not just Sunni — neighborhoods.

This will be the ultimate test for the Shi’a-dominated Iraqi government. Has it, to use Bush’s words, “made the choice for freedom,” or, as has been the case until now, will its choice be revenge towards the Sunnis under whom the Shi’a suffered for decades?

The best indicator of the Iraqi government’s choice will be whether or not its army takes decisive and sustained action against al-Sadr’s militia. Since al-Sadr is a participant in the government, this course of action will almost certainly split the government. It’s highly unlikely that al-Sadr will order his militia to lay down its arms and, even if he were to do so, recent reports indicate that not everyone in the militia he formed is still loyal to him. Accordingly, if Maliki is true to his word and has the power to control the army, the most likely outcome will be an intra-Shi’a conflict resembling, perhaps, the conflict between the PLO and Hamas. No wonder Bush, in his speech, warned that much violence lies ahead.

It sounds like the U.S. has, at long last, adopted a true counterinsurgency strategy — at least in Baghdad. But that’s a subject for a post I plan on writing after I return home this weekend.

With a full awareness that the strategy may be too little, too late, I support it. We’ve reached this point because of past mistakes. That being the case, it’s the least bad of the alternatives that are now available. Nobody any longer supports staying the course. Withdrawal, I believe, would entail all of the negative consequences mentioned by Bush.

Cross-posted at American Future.