Report Says Israel Considering Tactical Nukes To Destroy Iran Nukes
Once again, reports are surfacing about Israel seriously considering a strike to take out Iran’s facilities that could pose a nuclear threat — this time from the Times Online that says contingency plans are now on the drawing boards.
The difference this time: the report says Israel is considering using tactical nuclear weapons to eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat.
Important? Yes. Deserving of breathless reporting and SCREECHING HEADLINES? No. Not yet, at least.
Because this issue — what Israel will do given unabashed verbal threats from Iran’s leadership to eliminate it from the face of the earth — has been the subject of reports from time to time with unnamed sources saying Israel will not sit back and do nothing.
The latest report follows the pattern of previous ones that might not have been as precise as this report, again using unnamed sources — a fact that does not reduce the story’s legitimacy or potential accuracy. It’s the tactical nukes part that’s new. Some excerpts:
ISRAEL has drawn up secret plans to destroy Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities with tactical nuclear weapons.Two Israeli air force squadrons are training to blow up an Iranian facility using low-yield nuclear “bunker-busters�, according to several Israeli military sources.
The attack would be the first with nuclear weapons since 1945, when the United States dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The Israeli weapons would each have a force equivalent to one-fifteenth of the Hiroshima bomb.
This is a kind of “high concept” story where the first impression is of Israeli planes dropping nukes on Iran to wipe out the Iranian nation’s nuclear capability. However, the story — written by the paper’s correspondents in New York and Washington (suggesting the sources may be diplomatic) — makes it clear the plan calls for precision bombing:
Under the plans, conventional laser-guided bombs would open “tunnels� into the targets. “Mini-nukes� would then immediately be fired into a plant at Natanz, exploding deep underground to reduce the risk of radioactive fallout.“As soon as the green light is given, it will be one mission, one strike and the Iranian nuclear project will be demolished,� said one of the sources.
The plans, disclosed to The Sunday Times last week, have been prompted in part by the Israeli intelligence service Mossad’s assessment that Iran is on the verge of producing enough enriched uranium to make nuclear weapons within two years.
Israeli military commanders believe conventional strikes may no longer be enough to annihilate increasingly well-defended enrichment facilities. Several have been built beneath at least 70ft of concrete and rock. However, the nuclear-tipped bunker-busters would be used only if a conventional attack was ruled out and if the United States declined to intervene, senior sources said.
This veracity of this story is impossible to confirm. True, the sourcing could be good, informed sourcing. But there are often other motives for sources to leak a sensational, headline-grabbing story: for instance, sending a message to Tehran or even a message to policy makers in Washington that Tel Aviv’s patience in listening to Iranian officials say how Israel is on borrowed time won’t be tolerated forever. It’s an interesting now-it-can-be-told piece but so far it is notably being trumpeted by the major news agencies or running as front page banner headlines on newspapers or at the top of news broadcasts…and that’s for a reason. It could be accurate, it could be a political trial balloon and it could be speculation.
Speculation is rampant on Iran, much of it quite thoughtful. For instance, this excellent roundup in The Glittering Eye over the upcoming promotion of Adm. William Fallon as new CENTCOM commander notes that one theory is that he’s being given the plum post because he’d be a perfect person in command if there’s some kind of military action against Iran.
Yet, even there breathless headline writers might be advised to take a nice, deep Yoga breath: recent reports say the military has made it known that it already feels stretched to the limit as President George W. Bush prepares to announce a “surge” (a word used politically to avoid the word “escalation”) in troops to Iraq.
Would the administration seriously consider a military action against Iran, or playing mop-up in the wake of a firestorm set off by an Israeli military action, if it’s stretched to the limit squeezing American resources to bolster the Iraq war effort?
THAT’S JUST OUR VIEW. HERE IS A CROSS-SECTION OF SOME OTHERS:
–Larisa Alexandrovna sees reason for alarm over the probably U.S. and Israeli intent: “Our carriers are nearly in position as are nearly all the key players and pieces. Israel, as it turns out, will be the proxy element through which the US will spread nuclear democracy across Iran. We are screwed and Israelis are screwed while our two extremist, rogue governments are leading the planet into disaster. Forget the horsemen of the apocalypse.” Another quote:” If Israel really wanted to avoid a second Holocaust (and as a Jew I have some personal interest in this myself obviously), then Israel needs to stop being a client state for US interests and playing friendly with people who were in fact protectors of the Nazis and their ratline.”
–Power Line has some more questions about the sources’ motives: “The Times’ article purports to be based on information from Israeli and American sources. So the obvious question is, what lies behind the apparent leaks? Are they sanctioned by the Israeli government, perhaps with a view toward deterring Iran’s further weapons development? Do they come from renegade sources who want pressure brought to bear on the Israelis not to carry out a military mission? Or are the leaks some other kind of misdirection intended to confuse Iran?”
–Pajamas Media has questions on sources’ motives as well: “Pajamas Media wants to know why Israeli military sources would leak this information now.”
–Brilliant At Breakfast: “Wanna see the American economy collapse too? Then grab your popcorn, because if the U.K. Times Online is right, that’s what we’re going to see…It kind of adds a new dimension to the fact that John McCain and Joe Lieberman are attached at the hip AND complete supporters of the Bush Madness, doesn’t it?”
–Wizbang’s MUST READ has a ton of links on this issue.
–Seven Stripes: “I could only hope Israel would muster the strength to carry out a military operation against Ahmadinejad and his nuclear ambitions, considering the plethora of verbal threats against Israel over the past year or two. Then again, one must wonder whether the revelation of these “secretâ€? plans is a deliberate attempt by Israel to scare the Iranians via concocted misinformation….I cannot believe that this highly sensitive information would be reported unless Israel’s full desires were that it be disclosed as a warning to Iran against it’s continued pursuit of nuclear arms.”
My gut tells me that - based on how things have gone the last year or so — (what with Olmert pansy-assing out against Hizballah, and Bush failing to get tough enough against NOKO, IRAN or ASSAD or Mookie al Sadr) - — that nobody on the our side HAS BALLS BIG ENOUGH TO NUKE IRAN. Which is sorta what the mullahs are counting on. Arik Sharon had big enough balls. And so did FDR and Truman and Churchill. So you are right Popinjay: this is probably PR/BS designed to send Iran a signal. One they will snicker about and ignore.
